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Russia's Ambassador to Nato, Dmitry Rogozin, wrote last month that “with the demise of communism, reasons for the West and Russia to be in confrontation vanished”. He would be hard put to stand by his remark when Nato meets tomorrow for an emergency summit forced on its members by Russia's invasion of Georgia, especially given its troops' continued presence there despite two ceasefire deals, its extraordinary threat to Poland last Friday, and reports that it is considering arming its Baltic fleet with nuclear warheads for the first time since the Cold War.
As it happens, Mr Rogozin was wrong. There have been myriad reasons for confrontation between the West and Russia since 1991. The implosion of a hollow ideology gave way to a series of more practical grounds for dispute, from Washington's passion for missile defence to Moscow's foot-dragging over Iranian uranium enrichment. But there has been no provocation quite so blatant as the flooding of South Ossetia and parts of Georgia with Russian tanks. Nato has so far floundered in response, but this does not make it irrelevant. The opposite is true.
Nato will be 60 next year - past retirement age for most personnel under its command. Until the Georgian war, retirement, to many, seemed an option for Nato itself. It had triumphed in the Cold War against the Warsaw Pact with scarcely a shot fired in anger. It had rained high explosive on Kosovo, ending Serbian ethnic cleansing of Muslims there. But in Afghanistan, too complex command structures and absurd restrictions on some of its members' deployments too often have made its operations ineffectual. In Europe, polls taken before the August 8 invasion of Georgia found that decreasing numbers of taxpayers thought Nato vital for security. In Brussels, Nato officials are as undecided as their EU counterparts on whether to help work towards an enhanced EU defence capability, and if so how.
August 8 provided a moment of clarity. The impunity with which Moscow ordered heavy armour into Georgia showed that the principle of collective security on which Nato is based remains the only serious guarantee of its members' borders. It showed that Russia seeks nothing less than a veto on further Nato expansion. And it showed that the price of denying Russia that veto could be high: absent the threat of mutually assured destruction, the notion that an attack on one Nato member state is an attack on all, to be resisted by all, now seems more likely to lead to conflict than at any time in the Cold War.
So anyone who thought Germany might cite recent events as vindication of its opposition to further Nato expansion at the organisation's last summit in Bucharest may have been surprised to hear Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday assuring Georgia that it would become a member of Nato if it wished to. They need not have been.
Deferring Nato membership for Georgia and Ukraine was right, not because of Russian threats but because neither country has earned it yet. Both need to consolidate their democratic reforms. In the meantime, Nato needs to fix what is going wrong in operational terms in Afghanistan. Winning hearts and minds while fighting a fanatical counter-insurgency is tough at the best of times and hugely ambitious with a multi-lingual force drawn from 40 countries.
In Brussels tomorrow Nato must address not just the immediate crisis in the Caucasus but the need to streamline its command and control systems in conflict zones. Only then will guarantees of territorial integrity for new members serve their ultimate purpose of deterring aggression.
Mr Rogozin has called Russia's relations with Nato the basis of global security. On this he is right. But those relations will founder until Russia understands that Nato means business.
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Who cares if Russia is upset? How about : Russia is upsetting the west with the warmongering attidude. and Please stop telling me that is the West/Nato/USA/EU that causes the problem. I am tired of this. Russia has still not evolved socially since Peter the Great.
Anthony L, Chelmsford, UK
NATO is more vital tody than ever. Russian aggression in the Caucasus has demonstrated that the Bear is awake and hungry for more land. Are we Western democracies going to show no backbone, and allow Georgia to be swallowed up like we let Czechoslovakia fall to Hitler in the 1930s? No!
Sean, Wheaton, USA
Russia should let alone the West! The West = a trap! The West does not have principles: lie, hypocrisy, arrogance, double standards! Russia should look at the East and aside Latin America! The West let cooks in the boiler and serves interests American neocons!
luba, Moscow,
Ahmen! Give me a hallelujah. phil
PhilTR, Birmingham, AL, USA
NATO needs to come to an end. It cost to much and does nothing. If the US was isolationist we would not be dragged into other peoples fights.
John, placentia, republic of california
It is unsettling to see how many little Chamberlains you have among your readers. Russia overruns little democratic Georgia and they wail the "West wants war", the EU is "the most stunning fact for peace" and "What is NATO for?" EU Jaw-jaw will not stop Russian War-war. Study Russia's history.
T. Edward, Washington, USA
So we let Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia , and Lithuania join NATO, crazy! The impossible happens; Russia applies too and is accepted. Pushing the conflict problem further east to face over a billion angry Chinamen. Now, how's that for a dreaded possibility?
Tony Cox, Liverpool, England
So west WANTS war....
Again...
Napoleon, Hitler... who is the next?
I really do not understand this troglodyte russophobia.
Why you guis cannot live in peace?
Anton, Sankt Petersburg, Russia
The today's Georgian president we shall gain the sick crazy vanity which has become by a basis politicians of the USA last years. The standard and widely widespread illness, the banal diagnosis. He/she is the artificial American who has been grown up in transatlantic college...
Luba, Moscow,
And rightly so. Just one glance at the map makes you realise, Georgia is a North Atlantic country.
Mark, London,
What is NATO for in a Post Cold War World ?
ian payne, walsall,
The world must stand together and demand Russia troops to get out of Georgia's sovereignty and make Russia pay the cost of rebuild Georgia. If the world failed to act together, that wuould be the end of peace on earth. Who is next for Russia to invade? How does Russia still have Veto power on this?
donglee, shanghai, chinese
Ukraine needs an invitation for membership of NATO and the EU tomorrow. Russia just invaded and occupied a sovereign democratic state. Russia after taking Ukraine will be much more powerful. Furthermore an authoritarian Russia will never be part of Europe.
John Heithaus, Chicago, USA
It was so sad and pitiful that the powerful country like Russia crushe a very tiny Democratic country like Georgia just to show the whole world their powwer and ignore world pledge to stop. Innocent peoples had died and families have been lost for this abusing power. I wish to see the world stood up
dong lee, shanghai, china
Christopher, it doesn't work that way. The EU was only able to evolve because of the security guarantees that NATO membership involves. The recipe is distinctly NATO 1st, EU 2nd.
ende, dc,
Georgia and the Ukraine are in Europe. The EU cooperation of nations is the most stunning fact for peace in the world. Let Georgia and Ukraine join the EU firstly, if they wish to, then they could join NATO. And give Russia associate status!
Christopher Noble, broadstone, UK
It beats me just what relevancy inviting Georgia into NATO or into EU membership has? Are there some madmen in charge of NATO now. What use will all this have except to exacerbate the fragile diplomatic relationships between Russia and the West. Sheer stupidity at best, and incompetence at worst!
B Clark, Chelmsford, England UK