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At the start of the Democratic convention in Denver, one woman seemed to stand between Barack Obama and a straight fight with John McCain for the White House. The same is true now, but the woman in question is not Sarah Palin. It is still Hillary Clinton.
For ten days, the media leviathan that stalks US presidential campaigns has been slavering, of course, over the Governor of Alaska. Her speaking skills have been tested and found to be electrifying. Her family's foibles and her mis-steps in office have failed to dent her popularity. Instead, her swift rise to political rock-star status has distracted Senator Obama, and gives every appearance of having impaired his judgment.
In Virginia on Tuesday Mr Obama likened promises of sweeping change from the McCain campaign to putting “lipstick on a pig”. Aides to Senator McCain accused him of calling Mrs Palin a pig. Mr Obama noted that he had not even mentioned her by this point in his speech, but the damage had been done. Consciously or not, he had evoked Mrs Palin's unforgettable description of herself as a pitbull with lipstick, and appeared to insult her. This was a stumble. The real mis-step has been for Mr Obama, a presidential candidate, to acknowledge Mrs Palin, a vice-presidential nominee. He should be above the Palintology.
The Democrats have yet to grapple seriously with the Palin phenomenon, which is simultaneously shoring up the Republican base and eroding Mr Obama's. Thanks largely to Mrs Palin's performance in Minnesota, Mr McCain's post-convention bounce has brought him level with Mr Obama in most national polls. Democrats have scaled back ambitious campaign plans for all 50 states to focus on familiar battlegrounds. Even the financial race is tightening.
But it is the trend among white women voters that should truly alarm the Obama camp. One survey from the past two days shows an 11 per cent swing within this group since last week towards the McCain-Palin ticket. Another shows an astonishing and potentially decisive 20 per cent swing, comprising independents but also up to a quarter of women previously pledged to support Senator Clinton.
It was with these women that the “hockey mom” label was meant to resonate, and it is resonating. Some will return to the Democratic fold if the Obama campaign succeeds in making Mrs Palin's social conservatism more of an issue. But many will back Mr McCain, out of anger either at their candidate's failure to be nominated or at perceived prejudice towards Mrs Palin herself. One Clinton fundraiser has devoted herself to fighting sexist coverage of the Alaska Governor.
White women have traditionally favoured Democrats in national races. Without them, it is doubtful that Mr Obama can win in November, but only Mrs Clinton has the credentials and sheer political wattage to bring them back under the Democratic umbrella. It is by no means clear that she wants to.
Lesser-known Democrats have dutifully attacked Mrs Palin in person since last week. Mrs Clinton has not. She has explicitly declined to be drawn into a “cat fight” and on Monday, four days into the campaign proper, was still calling Mrs Palin's place on the Republican ticket “a great accomplishment”.
Mrs Clinton therefore has an historic decision to make: to sit on her hands and watch Mr Obama flail in a race that, two weeks ago, was his to lose; or to ride to his rescue for the second time since his capture of a nomination that she considered hers by right. The first time, in Denver, her appeal for party unity seemed likely to launch Mr Obama towards the White House. Then came Mrs Palin. Cue Hillary, again.
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I am so tired of the "blame Hillary" crowd. First she stayed in the race too long, then she wasn't enthusiastic enough about Obama, and now she's not attacking the Republican VP nominee. Isn't that Biden's job? If Obama is slipping, there's only one person to blame.
George, Boston, USA
Sarah="plus" 4 USA. Never before interested in politics! A woman is appealing;but her being outside the DC political scene-"fresh" blood arriving in DC with "fresh" attitude is critical. Is time 2 change CORRUPT DC Ob's rise thru corrupt Chicago politics is frightening.Is time for integrity in DC.
Karen, Denver, USA
View the lipstick tape in its entirety and you'll hear his old fish follow up. The partisan crowd in the background knew what he meant and who he was sending his barbs to.
Just like his flipping Hillary the bird at successive campaign rallies during the Primaries.
Obama does little, unscripted.
J. Lombardo, Southampton, US
The US election is like the Gerry Springer show running for 18 months. Surely there must be a better way for the proponents of Democracy to pick their leaders. After getting it wrong the last two times, I fear for the world they will be wrong again.
Richard Francis, Mississauga , Canada
There isnt enough actors in hollywood and oprah's to get obama elected.........
McCain/Palin 2008
Sue, Indianapolis, USA of course
Obama's lack of experience is allowing his poor judgment to show forth, finally. You can say, "I regret that choice" when you've made a poor call during a campaign, but what are you going to when Iran launches missiles and Russia cuts off Europe's gas? This isn't just another community organization.
Steve, Denver, USA
The DNC cost Hillary the race despite the fact she kept winning. They wrongly supported no- accomplishment, dirty politics Obama. They and he dissed her and the media lapped it up. Don't forget Michigan and Fla. It's too late now. She's done enough of a service to her party and her country.
H Rich, London, UK
The Democrats seem to have blown it again! Barring disasters and taking into account the dislike of OB that seems to be spreading in the US, plus the charismatic Palin, I think we are in for another 4 years of Republicans. What a pity for the rest of the world; more of the same...
Colin, shrewsbury,
Exactly what part of the Swift Boats statements were false? Has John Kerry released his Military records? Did I miss something?
Alex Elliott, Tamarac, USA
Big tactical blunder of Barak to turn his attention to the no.2 rather than his direct opponent. If he makes a tactical blunder on such a simple issue, how can we trust his judgement the moment he faces a real problem? Is he just going to turn his back, and walk away, like he did from his pastor?
N. Monrad, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Independent here. Will vote McCain. Never thought I would, but I like what I am hearing and I like A WOMAN on the ticket. Hillary should not rescue Obama. She will never be president if she does. After the slap in the face he gave her, No Way! If she has to run against Sarah Palin in 4 years Great!
Katelesley, Hawkins,
Independent here. Will vote McCain. Never thought I would, but I like what I am hearing and I like A WOMAN on the ticket. Hillary should not rescue Obama. She will never be president if she does. After the slap in the face he gave her, No Way! If she has to run against Sarah Palin in 4 years Great!
Katelesley, Hawkins, USA
This is the most outrageous scenario. If a woman, black, white, or blue votes for Sarah Palin, than she was NEVER a true Democrat to begin with.
They are woman who are ANTI-choice, and don't care if abortion is made illegal (I don't know ANY Democratic women who want abortion made illegal).
Melissa Murray, London, UK
She says stuff and it is ok. He says stuff it is sexist. If you can not stand the heat, get out of the kitchen Hillary would say, and i am very comfortable. I think Biden needs to lay into her with the foreign and domestic stuff she has no clue on, then bring up the bridge to nowhere,
sandy, quakertown pa, usa
To you, 58-yr old white woman voting for McCain....remember when you pull that lever that you are setting women's rights back 20 years. Any woman who goes to work when her special needs child is only three days old is not a role model for my children and grandchildren. Family values lacking!
nett ferguson, San Diego, CA, USA
I'm from Obama's district but we will vote for McCain.
Lynn, Chicago, USA
Pamela Johnston: so instead of Clinton, you're going to vote for a woman and a party who stand for everything Clinton opposes-- no abortion choice even for raped girls, creationism taught in schools, tax cuts only for the rich, indifference to environmental protection... Please, use your brain!
Tina Rhea, Greenbelt Maryland, US
The damage of Obama's 'lipstick on a pig' "has been done"? You have got to be kidding! The US media has been questioning the veracity of the McCain campaign all week. It was a master stroke. It's got the news cycle back onto him and exposed McCain as the emperor without any clothes - just lipstick
Dr Francis Meynell, Norwich, UK
The Obama campaign is rattled and it shows. Perhaps he can turn it back around, but I doubt it. If anything, these latest events show me that he really doesn't have the experience we need and the people around him are running out of ideas. You can already see that he is second guessing himself.
Dave, Austin, USA
Obama is losing because his true colors are coming through. He's inexperienced, ignorant, arrogant and superficial. Americans can smell a rat a mile away. He's toast
Tom, NY, USA
I am a 58 yr old white woman that has decided to vote the McCain / Palin ticket. I am an independent voter and I have voted Dem in the past. I personaly think that Obama has to little experience and to much baggage. I don't think Obama was properly vetted. Hillary should have gotten the nomination !
Pamela Johnston, Tavernier, USA
The candidacy of Barack Obama seems to have lost some of its luster of late, and I suspect this has something to do with large questions many Americans still harbor about his view of the dangerous world around us. Those questions were not stilled by the choice of Joe Biden as his running mate.
Amad Shaff, Beverly Hills , USA
Obama needs Hillary like a hole in the head. The woman is divisive and self-serving. If Obama is to win he must do so in his way and on his own terms - he doesn't want to owe the Clintons anything.
Dr Ian Burgess, Bristol,
HIlary has very little choice. if she does not help Obama win the Dems will never forgive her. And by the time of the next election, she wont have a chance against Palin..
Neil Murphy, cromer,