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The decision by Tzipi Livni, the leader of the ruling Kadima party, to abandon attempts to form a new coalition government and call a snap election is risky, courageous and right. For the past month, since she took over from Ehud Olmert, the outgoing Prime Minister, she has been trying to win the continued support of Labour, Shas and other small religious parties. But with a razor-thin majority, Shas has seen a chance to set conditions and press demands that would severely limit the prime minister designate's room for manoeuvre in talks with the Palestinians and eat into future budgets. In exasperation she has therefore called for the dissolution of parliament, saying she was not ready to “mortgage the future of Israel” and give in to political “blackmail”.
Three months ago such a course would have been suicidal. Kadima was suffering from a string of political scandals and Mr Olmert, accused of financial corruption and haunted by his disastrous handling of the war with Lebanon in 2006, had the lowest ratings of any Israeli prime minister. An election then would almost certainly have returned to power Binyamin Netanyahu and his right-wing Likud party, from which many Kadima members have defected.
Ms Livni, however, has turned around her party's fortunes and is now poised to win 29 of the 120 Knesset seats, three more than Likud, according to the latest polls. She has done this by showing leadership, a quality sorely lacking in Israeli politics in recent years. As Foreign Minister and Mr Olmert's main negotiator with the Palestinian Authority, she has shown consistency and determination to be flexible. And though the commitment by both sides to achieve a framework agreement for a settlement by the end of the Bush presidency in January now looks all but impossible, she clearly wants to follow the elusive “road map” as prime minister.
This not only commits Israel to withdrawal from most of the West Bank, but also deals with the thorniest issue, Jerusalem. The Shas demand that Israel rule out any consideration of east Jerusalem as a Palestinian capital would block any further talks. And Ms Livni knows that these will be at the heart of any election campaign.
She is also right to resist the demand of Shas for unaffordable and unjustified extra welfare payments. The party draws its support largely from the ultra-religious, who tend to be poor and have large families. It has often exploited its pivotal position in Israeli coalitions to push for such special payments. So too do most of the other splinter parties, which have the power in Israel's fragmented politics to make or break coalitions.
Calling an election is an attempt to call their bluff. That will not be easy. The religious parties are impervious to most issues except those for which they stand, and regularly poll the same vote. One day, Israel must reform its chaotic electoral system. But that cannot be tackled yet.
New elections will put all talks with the Palestinians on hold. They have already expressed frustration, saying that nothing can now be done for more than a year. President Bush, hoping like his predecessor for results in his final months, will also leave office with no legacy in place. Far better, however, to have a new strong Israeli government, ready to take decisions as a new administration takes over in Washington, than a weak coalition stumbling forward from day to day.
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