Win VIP tickets
As economic news worsens and the housing market collapses, the Government has announced a scheme to help homeowners defer mortgage payments if they lose their jobs. The measure is intended to reduce the risk that people who suffer an unexpected loss of income, and who may have negative equity in their homes, will be evicted. Details are scanty and the impact will be limited. But the measure is of at least symbolic value in an economic climate where symbols may help in restoring confidence.
Data from the housing market indicate nothing but pain, notwithstanding a further cut in the interest rate. House prices fell by 2.6 per cent in November, and the rate of decline is accelerating. The Council of Mortgage Lenders states that new lending may turn negative in 2009 (that is, the amount of new lending will be lower than the mortgage debt repaid). The market appears to be in a spiral where mortgage loans are not being advanced, which puts further pressure on sales, which further depresses prices.
Lower house prices have economic benefits. But the scale and speed of the market's collapse are disruptive. The Government has agreed the scheme, which it hopes will cost no more than £1 billion, with the eight largest mortgage providers. Help will be available to homeowners with mortgages of up to £400,000. It will apply to payment of interest but not capital repayments, for up to two years. The taxpayer will underwrite the risk that borrowers will default.
There are many objections to the scheme. First, it appears to have been floated without serious estimates. Margaret Beckett, the housing minister, suggested unreassuringly that greater detail would emerge as the scheme developed. Given the severity of the recession and likely rise in unemployment, the cost may outstrip the Government's tentative expectations, and put further pressure on public finances.
Secondly, schemes of temporary assistance to cope with exceptional circumstances have a habit of not being revoked when conditions allow. The pensioners' Christmas bonus was a supposedly temporary measure to boost consumer spending in the 1972 recession; it is still here.
Thirdly, the scheme may prove counter-productive. It implicitly assumes that today's economic trauma will be eased at least in the medium term. But if recession is prolonged and the collapse in the housing market intensifies, then borrowers who take advantage of the scheme may find themselves impoverished at the end of the two-year mortgage holiday. They may have still greater negative equity in their home, no job, and the renewed risk of repossession. A scheme offered as a palliative for economic pain might harm the intended beneficiary, the taxpayer and the mortgage lenders, some of which are publicly owned.
But against these pragmatic considerations, there is a decisive argument of principle. The financial crisis and recession are unanticipated consequences of interlocking policy errors and bad business practices. There is much debate about long-run reforms to mitigate the risk of such a disaster happening again. But the short-run response must involve some bailout for those who face ruin. In the 1930s, a failure to protect the victims of the Great Depression precipitated the rise of xenophobia and social disruption. The costs of a bailout are borne inevitably by some people who were prudent as well as fortunate. But the costs of not bailing out those suffering hardship are incalculable.
In however inchoate a form, the mortgage holiday scheme expresses the principle of a social contract in times of trouble. If government is seen to be on the side of the victims of the crisis, then it may help to instil greater confidence in the eventual recovery.
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£23,093 - £56,211
The Office for National Statistics
Newport, South Wales
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
This was a policy cobbled together on the back of a fag packet so Gordon had omethiing 'positive' to announce after the Queen's Speech to try & show that he is 'helping hard-working families.' Even the Banks haven't signed up to it yet cos no-one knows the details. It's just pre-Election Spin.
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
Banks are clearly generally culpable for the toxic debt speculation. If they deserve government bail outs; borrowers do too. The same banks were content to write off huge amounts of debt in South America and the third world generally but back at home prefer to shuffle off their responsibility.
Alan Tayler, Wivelsfield, England
Mortgage guarantee indemnity premiums exascerbate this problem since the insured bank has both an incentive to evict and sell for a low price - further undermining the market.
Alan Tayler, Wivelsfield, England
No. People who were greedy and lied about their income and finances to the banks and who borrowed more than they could afford should not be bailed out by the prudent and cautious people. To advocate a bailout to avoid social disruption is moral blackmail. Roll on 2012 and the day of reckoning
M. Lewis, St Albans, UK
Apparently, the newly announced system will only work because bureaucrats will be charged with making assessments of the individuals that come before them; yet another area where bureaucrats are asked to be judges and juries without having any real qualification. Once it was just parking fines!
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
It's all about buying votes-stupid me to think it is even remotely connected to helping those in need.GB 's cynical vote buying using other people's money.
Andy m, london, uk
As one of yr commentary writers says today:- no-one helps those who rent when they too face losing their often equally beloved and sometimes long-term homes. I rent and I save regular sums each month; I'm being kicked in the teeth twice over by this spending-obsessed regime.
R. Dewar, High Wycombe, UK
What do you mean "some people who were prudent" - the costs are borne exclusively by the prudent, while the stupid, irresponsible and greedy benefit.
This is not a social contract, it is state-sponsored theft.
Jeremy, London,
House prices are overvalued, the sooner we get them to the real level the faster the economy will get back to normal. These policies just delay the inevitable and delay the recovery. It also leaves the taxpayer liable to significant downside on the guarantees provided. Chasing votes.
Ian, Tokyo, Japan
The 'principle' argument is surely also against such a bailout. Yes, people will suffer but presumably all of these people are adults who were capable of reading the (not so) small print. For every reckless borrower who helped push up house prices there is a prudent saver who has been priced out.
Matt, Sydney,
Hmmmm....
True, it may restore confidence in the short term, but like everything associated with nulabour, it'll hurt in the long term, because the mortgage will still have to be paid back, won't it?
Life is indeed going to get very interesting!
Martyn Taylor, Swindon, Engalnd