Attend a special evening hosted by Mike Atherton
As economic news worsens and the housing market collapses, the Government has announced a scheme to help homeowners defer mortgage payments if they lose their jobs. The measure is intended to reduce the risk that people who suffer an unexpected loss of income, and who may have negative equity in their homes, will be evicted. Details are scanty and the impact will be limited. But the measure is of at least symbolic value in an economic climate where symbols may help in restoring confidence.
Data from the housing market indicate nothing but pain, notwithstanding a further cut in the interest rate. House prices fell by 2.6 per cent in November, and the rate of decline is accelerating. The Council of Mortgage Lenders states that new lending may turn negative in 2009 (that is, the amount of new lending will be lower than the mortgage debt repaid). The market appears to be in a spiral where mortgage loans are not being advanced, which puts further pressure on sales, which further depresses prices.
Lower house prices have economic benefits. But the scale and speed of the market's collapse are disruptive. The Government has agreed the scheme, which it hopes will cost no more than £1 billion, with the eight largest mortgage providers. Help will be available to homeowners with mortgages of up to £400,000. It will apply to payment of interest but not capital repayments, for up to two years. The taxpayer will underwrite the risk that borrowers will default.
There are many objections to the scheme. First, it appears to have been floated without serious estimates. Margaret Beckett, the housing minister, suggested unreassuringly that greater detail would emerge as the scheme developed. Given the severity of the recession and likely rise in unemployment, the cost may outstrip the Government's tentative expectations, and put further pressure on public finances.
Secondly, schemes of temporary assistance to cope with exceptional circumstances have a habit of not being revoked when conditions allow. The pensioners' Christmas bonus was a supposedly temporary measure to boost consumer spending in the 1972 recession; it is still here.
Thirdly, the scheme may prove counter-productive. It implicitly assumes that today's economic trauma will be eased at least in the medium term. But if recession is prolonged and the collapse in the housing market intensifies, then borrowers who take advantage of the scheme may find themselves impoverished at the end of the two-year mortgage holiday. They may have still greater negative equity in their home, no job, and the renewed risk of repossession. A scheme offered as a palliative for economic pain might harm the intended beneficiary, the taxpayer and the mortgage lenders, some of which are publicly owned.
But against these pragmatic considerations, there is a decisive argument of principle. The financial crisis and recession are unanticipated consequences of interlocking policy errors and bad business practices. There is much debate about long-run reforms to mitigate the risk of such a disaster happening again. But the short-run response must involve some bailout for those who face ruin. In the 1930s, a failure to protect the victims of the Great Depression precipitated the rise of xenophobia and social disruption. The costs of a bailout are borne inevitably by some people who were prudent as well as fortunate. But the costs of not bailing out those suffering hardship are incalculable.
In however inchoate a form, the mortgage holiday scheme expresses the principle of a social contract in times of trouble. If government is seen to be on the side of the victims of the crisis, then it may help to instil greater confidence in the eventual recovery.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?
Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge
With rail travel in Europe on the rise, we review the benefits of travelling by train
In this special section we explore new food trends to help improve your dinner party and impress guests
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
1998
£47,955
12 months for the price of 11 and a 5% discount.
Offer ends 31/11/09
Check your free Experian credit report before applying
Car Insurance
£353 per day
Phonepay Plus
London
PwC’s Consulting practice helps businesses of all shapes and sizes work smarter and grow faster
PwC
£37,000
Department for Culture, Media and Sport
London
Currently £36,285
Department for Culture, Media and Sport
London
Moments from Battersea Park.
For sale with Winkworth
Find out about shared ownership.
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Accommodation, flights, tickets to the race and a KL city tour for only £999pp
PremierHolidays.co.uk
For your ultimate tailor-made ski holiday, click here
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
World Class Golf, Spa and preferential Beach Club. Private estate overlooking West Coast
Villas from £275 per night inclusive of Golf
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.