As politics winds down for its generous Christmas break - the House of Commons will not be back until January 12 - MPs’ thoughts have turned to 2009 and the not inconsiderable matter of their survival. Will Gordon Brown, having once flirted with an early election with disastrous consequences, find the nerve to strike early?

In the autumn of last year the prime minister listened to the “kids” in his cabinet, Ed Balls and Douglas Alexander, and almost went for it before his natural caution took over. Fear of a defeat just months into his premiership meant the plotting and planning came to nought, although not without harming his reputation for being able to take decisive action.

This time it is different. The prime minister’s new best friend Lord Mandelson, when he isn’t watching Strictly Come Dancing, is devising ways of ensuring new Labour’s longevity. He is in a different league from the kids and is tempted by an early election. So, too, is Lord Gould, who masterminded Tony Blair’s three election victories. Charlie Whelan, a throwback to new Labour’s earlier days in government, is trusted by the prime minister and has gone public with a call for an election in the first half of 2009.

This game is both serious and has the added benefit of creating uncertainty for the opposition. David Cameron has had a tough time recently. Being personable and appealing to English middle-class voters was a sensible strategy during the good times but he has suffered as the economy has tanked. He and George Osborne, his shadow chancellor, are in danger of looking like lightweights.

Meanwhile, Mr Brown is relishing it. In his mind he is a war leader, a latterday Winston Churchill. His warnings, when he was chancellor, about the need for a better international financial architecture were the equivalent of Churchill’s fears about German military ambitions in the 1930s. There is a large element of self-delusion in this view, making the task of those seeking to persuade him to go early more difficult. Mr Brown thinks this is just the start and the longer he leaves it the better it will get. The Tory lead has shrunk from 26 percentage points last spring to seven this weekend. The prime minister believes the swing to Labour will continue as voters give him credit for the banking rescue and lower energy prices and as interest rate cuts boost household incomes.

There is an alternative. It is that taxpayers will come to realise his part in the economy’s downfall as they venture abroad with the pound at rock bottom and as the realisation sinks in that the legacy of his chancellorship was a public sector debt hangover that will take years to cure. The longer and deeper the recession becomes - and the evidence of recent weeks has been alarming - is that rising dole queues and deepening misery may result in a massive political backlash. If he holds on to the end, he could be punished with a historic election defeat.

It is a finely balanced decision. Go early and risk losing power and the chance of success in 2010. Hang on and hope for a turn in the economy that will lift the nation’s mood. The polls are inconclusive. The public’s mood is alarmed and volatile. Lord Mandelson will be weighing all this up. If he decides there is a time to move, he will have huge clout with Mr Brown. Either route is high-risk and risk is something this prime minister has always been averse to, unless it is pumping vast amounts of taxpayers’ money into the economy while trying to claim credit for saving the world.