In a fortnight’s time, Germans should know which political parties will form their next government and who will be their chancellor. On Sunday, they witnessed the debate between the prime contenders for that role.

The election has been an odd affair. It was called by Gerhard Schröder, the Social Democratic Chancellor, in response to a series of devastating defeats for his party in regional elections. It is a desperate gambit. His main opponents, the Christian Democrats, while ahead in the polls, have not looked comfortable either. Angela Merkel, their choice for the chancellorship, has been cautious on the campaign trail and some of her colleagues have been crass in their public comments.

The election comes after a period in which Herr Schröder, a little belatedly, has begun to embrace parts of a serious reform programme. This welcome conversion to economic realism has proved fantastically unpopular with his own party. It has prompted a faction, headed by Oskar Lafontaine, a former leader of the Social Democrats and one-time Finance Minister, to combine with the remnants of the reformed East German Communists, to oppose him in this contest. This Left Party may win 10 per cent of the poll. Its emergence complicates the electoral arithmetic and the composition of any future coalition.

It means, in effect, that only two outcomes are plausible. The present Social Democrat-Green team will not be returned to Berlin with a majority. If the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats, their liberal smaller pro-business allies, win about half the votes cast, Frau Merkel will be Chancellor. It is possible, though, because of the electoral system, that the result will not be that straightforward. The Social Democrats, the Greens and the Left Party could have a majority even though it is most unlikely that they could work together. In that “hung parliament” scenario, a “grand coalition” of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats is possible.

It is not an attractive option. Most Christian Democrats want to push further along the path of reform than Herr Schröder has suggested. Germany would be ill-served by what would be an alliance of inconvenience, forced on reluctant politicians by a statistical quirk and reinforced by a constitution which, for perhaps understandable reasons (the legacy of the Weimar Republic), would make it hard to hold another election at speed.

Germany plainly dislikes the notion of radical economic change but that is what it desperately requires. Europe as a whole needs it to change as well. The EU’s largest economy has been in poor shape for more than a decade, to the detriment of Germany’s neighbours (including this country). The Christian Democrats are not as bold as they should be, but Frau Merkel has courage and the imaginative Free Democrats would exercise a positive influence on her administration. A clean victory for these two parties would offer Germany a fresh start. A nation that has persistently endured more than four million unemployed people cannot afford more of the same.