Pakistan’s swift condemnation of the weekend bombings in Delhi as “heinous and cowardly” underlines the danger to President Musharraf of attempts by Kashmiri militants to sabotage rapprochement with India. Both he and Manmohan Singh, the Indian Prime Minister, know well that the terrorists’ aim in killing women and children at random on the eve of Hindu and Muslim holidays is to produce an Indian backlash.

The claim at the weekend by an obscure Islamist group, probably acting as a front for banned terrorist organisations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, that it planted the bombs is intended to return India and Pakistan to the brink of nuclear confrontation, as happened when Islamist militants stormed the Indian parliament. Thankfully, there is almost no likelihood of that now happening. The peace process is too robust to be derailed by the random brutalities of Islamist terrorists.

The militants attempting to foment bloodshed in Indian-controlled Kashmir have been appalled by the humanitarian efforts across the Line of Control that have followed the devastating earthquake in the divided state. For terrorists guided by nihilism, only an intensification of suffering will provoke the kind of mass uprising that they demand. The militants hope that a bombing campaign modelled on al-Qaeda’s tactics will destroy the fragile progress on Kashmir made so far and the creation of relatively normal bilateral relations.

For Mr Musharraf, this is a dangerous threat. The Pakistani leader’s abandonment of the Taleban in Afghanistan, his crackdown on militants crossing the Line of Control and the arrest of scores of terrorists linked to al-Qaeda have made him a target for Islamist fanatics. He has survived several assassination attempts but is undeterred in his pursuit of detente with India. Were this determined effort to overcome historic enmity to collapse — and with it all the efforts to reassure investors and the outside world that Pakistan is stable and predictable — he would see the recent economic recovery vanish. This is the despair on which Islamists count to offer a bigoted alternative.

Dr Singh understands this full well. His reaction to the bombings has been measured and sensible. And Indians as a whole have reacted more maturely, knowing that their country is poised to take huge advantage of its growing economic and political power. They know also that only peace with Pakistan, probably entailing compromise in Kashmir, which will undoubtedly be a politically painful moment for politicians on all sides, will remove the threat of a sudden violent end to their prosperity. And they know that Pakistan, too, understands these geostrategic realities equally clearly.

The earthquake has exposed the myth of the militants’ extremism. Their claim to popular support is false. Recent events have brought to Pakistan thousands of tons of food, medicines and supplies from America and the West and assistance from the old enemy, India. Al-Qaeda’s attempt to depict the US as the enemy of Islam is wearing thin among tribesmen whose only contract with the West has been life-saving bags of rice or transport to hospital. The terrorists’ reply is to strike out at the softest of targets and hope to provoke a violent reaction. It is a brutal strategy, for which Indians preparing for holidays and family happiness, have paid with their lives. It should not induce further bloodshed.