All of the ballots are not yet returned and the result will not be declared for another ten days. It would, however, be a big surprise if David Cameron failed to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. It would not be arrogance but prudence for his thoughts to be turning to the nature of the Shadow Cabinet after his election. It can be safely assumed that, despite a renewed interest in politics, which we report today, that the team will not include Lord Archer of Weston-super-Mare.

Mr Cameron has, though, sent signals to William Hague, and the former party leader appears to be willing to return to the front line of British politics.He should do so now or forsake any such ambitions in future years. Mr Hague has spent a dignified and lucrative four years away from the Shadow Cabinet table as a star turn on the after-dinner speaking circuit, among other activities. He is too young and too talented for that to be a stimulating role for the next two decades. Mr Hague should aspire to be making the news rather than appearing on Have I Got News for You? He should be standing tall on the real political battlefield and in the very thick of the struggle.

That also means he has to be in the post that matters most to the Tories. It has been suggested that he may wish to come back as Shadow Foreign Secretary, partly because of his interest in international affairs, but also because that portfolio would not interfere too much with his rewarding outside interests. This is a poor argument, even it means that Mr Hague himself is richer for it. The Shadow Foreign Secretary is an invisible figure to the electorate. It would hardly be the most astute use of Mr Hague’s undoubted abilities. It would also leave the impression that he has returned to proper politics on just a leasehold, not a freehold, basis.

The obvious place for Mr Hague is as Shadow Chancellor. He has the flair to take on Gordon Brown not only in the House of Commons but with the public at large. It is surely in Mr Cameron’s and the Conservative Party’s interests for the process of cutting Mr Brown down to size to begin before, rather than after, his seemingly inevitable move from the Treasury to serve No 10. If Mr Hague took on this pivotal task it would demonstrate that both he and Mr Cameron were utterly serious about winning the next election.

It has been suggested by some that Mr Cameron would not ask George Osborne, his close friend and current campaign manager, to stand aside as Shadow Chancellor. It has also been hinted that Mr Hague might not want a berth that would oblige him to endure a huge cut in his income. These are not the calculations of those who are devoted to securing power. It is a test of Mr Cameron’s qualities of leadership that he makes the offer to Mr Hague, and also of whether he then in turn wants to be a politician or a stand-up comedian who sunlights as a Member of Parliament. One man has to show steel. The other has to prove mettle.

Mr Cameron also has to make David Davis an offer he cannot reasonably refuse. If he places him in an obscure location such as Shadow Defence Secretary, then that will be tantamount to inviting him to resume plotting. He would be better off retaining Mr Davis as Shadow Home Secretary but make it clear that total loyalty is part of the bargain. Mr Cameron this week described being the Leader of the Opposition as his “nightmare job”. The bolder that he is at the beginning, the better his chance of peaceful sleep.