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All hopes that the Tigers can now be persuaded to continue restraint or look for ways to resume the talks mediated by Norway now seem unrealistic. There was probably never any serious intention by the Tigers’ leader, Velupillai Prabakharan, to abandon violence or enter a dialogue that could have led to a political solution on the island that would have marginalised the cult-like influence of this malign figure.
The Tigers’ clear strategy has been to resume the armed conflict by a series of provocations. They began by ordering a boycott of last year’s elections in the expectation that a hardline Sinhalese nationalist, known for his anti-Tamil views, would triumph. This, they hoped, would lead to a clampdown that would alienate even moderate Tamils and rally them to the Tigers. That nationalist, Mahinda Rajapaksha, did win — and the Tigers responded with a series of manufactured incidents, including a dispute over water sources three months ago, which drew an armed response from the Government. More than 2,000 people have been killed in violence this year alone, monitors of the tattered “ceasefire” report. The country has clearly entered another tragic cycle of extreme violence.
The conflict is particularly intractable not just because of the history of grievances on both sides, but because of the brutal policies of Mr Prabakharan. His aim has always been to ensure his control over all the Tamil population. When some former Tigers recently questioned these tactics, they were targeted and attacked. But the Tigers have also depended on the support, financial and political, of Tamils overseas. In Europe this has led to demands for money and extortion from shopkeepers and businessmen that have been brutally enforced. Britain outlawed the Tigers as a terrorist organisation, making it illegal under recently enacted legislation to raise money for them. But this has not stopped the funding, or broken the ruthless control of pro-Tiger groups over other Tamils. Britain must look more closely at what is going on in this small community.
The resumption of violence is likely to hurt a recovering tourist industry, sharply reduce Sri Lanka’s otherwise resilient economic growth and deter foreign investors. The island’s neighbours ought to be more concerned. India, in particular, with its own Tamil population, has a fund of intelligence on the Tigers — though since the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi it has been wary of involvement. Yet India knows that terrorism has no bounds. Unless the Tiger threat is taken seriously, Sri Lanka will again find itself plunged into full-scale war.
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