Lebanon has supplanted Iraq in the headlines. But Iraq, where the daily death toll exceeds that in Lebanon, Gaza and Israel combined, is the grimmer battleground. Yesterday’s car-bombs in Baghdad and Kirkuk killed and wounded more than 200 Iraqis. Instigated by Iraq’s enemies, sectarian attacks and reprisals have escalated to the point where this terrible day almost counted as “normal”.

Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, meets Tony Blair in London today. Under his tough and avowedly non-sectarian leadership, Iraq finally has a home-grown strategy for reconciliation and recovery, endorsed by most of the key political players.

This plan has three main elements. To coax more Sunnis into the political framework, it offers power-sharing and amnesty for “patriotic” insurgents, while intensifying the fight against Islamist terrorists using Iraq as a domino in their campaign of destruction. It aims to disband Shia militias and clear the Interior Ministry of Shia death squads. It seeks to persuade Iraq’s neighbours that, unless they come to Iraq’s aid in this fight, their security too will be at risk.

On some fronts, there is already progress. Pressure from the Gulf States and Egypt has exacted pledges from Iran and Syria, in the words of Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, “to stop the crossing of terrorist groups into Iraq”. At least they are now talking the talk. But the five months of factional bickering before this Government was formed, a vacuum that both Syria and Iran exploited to foment violence, have enormously complicated Mr al-Maliki’s task. In Baghdad particularly, confidence has been all but lost in the Government’s ability to confront the Sunni bombers and Shia death squads. Neighbours are arming themselves against neighbours in battles that are ripping the city apart. Sectarian conflict may now exceed terrorism as the primary challenge to Iraq’s stability.

The cycle of revenge killings is not, as yet, a concerted nationwide phenomenon. It is a tribute to the tolerance, resilience and courage of the Iraqis that so many have resisted a brutally sustained campaign of incitement to civil war, that they continue to volunteer for police and military service, and that most schools and hospitals function despite the targeting of teachers and health workers. Even now, many more Iraqis have returned from exile than have been driven from their homes, or the country, by civic strife. Led by small businesses and farmers, the economy is growing, and, despite sabotage, Iraq is exporting some 1.7 million barrels of oil a day.

These are no small miracles. But the situation could swiftly degenerate. Mr al-Maliki’s plan may, as he has said, be Iraq’s “last chance” to confront its demons. It is fair to expect more specifics on confronting the Mahdi Army loyal to the Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. He must stand his ground there, or Sunni insurgents will never lay down arms. In turn, London and Washington must listen closely as he sets out what external support Iraq most needs, not least in better equipment for its police and Armed Forces. Iraq’s friends — and that should mean every civilised nation — must offer not vague promises for the future, but practical contributions in the here and now. This morning, Lebanon commands the headlines, but it is in Iraq that the future of the Middle East hangs in the balance.