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The real difficulty in these discussions does not involve, as it might, the notion that the Shia, Sunni and Kurdish communities should be included in an administration of national unity. That idea is accepted by virtually all of the components of the dominant Shia Alliance and has been welcomed by mainstream Sunni and Kurdish politicians. This understanding represents solid progress, even if it also inevitably complicates the process of allocating portfolios, as the same number of slots must be distributed between a larger collection of party leaders. This should not be an impossible exercise.
It is the personality of Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the interim Prime Minister who wishes to remain in that position, that has triggered most of the arguments. Mr al-Jaafari became the provisional Shia nominee for this post only after winning an internal ballot by one vote over Vice-President Adel Abdul Mahdi. Doubts have been expressed about the Prime Minister’s political skills, but of greater concern is the fact that he won only by courting the backing of Moqtada al-Sadr, the firebrand cleric, whose commitment to democracy and pluralism is, to put it charitably, open to question. It is not only Sunnis who are asking what the price of his support might be at a later date: a member of the largest party in the Shia Alliance has asked him to quit.
It seems unlikely that a consensus will be achieved quickly unless Mr al-Jaafari heeds the calls for him to step aside or can demonstrate by deed that he is not a prisoner of radical factions. It is especially important that sensitive ministries such as the interior, defence and oil are placed in the hands of individuals who are not perceived as narrowly sectarian in their agenda or outlook. There are plenty of respectable candidates available in all three communities, yet until it becomes clearer who will act as the Prime Minister the final stage of allocating portfolios to parties and people will not occur.
Ms Rice and Mr Straw must, therefore, be subtle but firm in their dialogue with the interested parties. The sooner that the top tier of government is settled, the greater the chances of drawing the overwhelming majority of Iraqis into the political process and marginalising those who remain determined to kill and maim fellow citizens. In ideal circumstances, Mr al-Jaafari would step back this week and allow a less contentious name to be put forward. If he does, Iraq can start to take the whole of its future into its hands.
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