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It may be too late, however, even for this dramatic measure. The King’s obstinacy and crass use of troops have seemingly turned much of the country against him. What began as pro-democracy demonstrations have become an angry uprising the aim of which is the abdication of the King and the abolition of the monarchy. The daily clashes and wavering commitment of troops to enforce the curfew have given the protests a momentum probably impervious now to reason or compromise.
It is hard to see any satisfactory outcome. The King, who took over after the massacre of his brother and family in 2001, has proved a thoroughly inept monarch, handicapped by arrogance, poor counsel and a widely disliked playboy son. His seizure of absolute power last year was prompted by the failure of the politicians to end the ten-year Maoist insurgency that has taken 13,000 lives and devastated the countryside. But the rebel violence has worsened, and Nepal’s economy, already one of the weakest in Asia, has stumbled badly. The King has so dissipated the initial support for his coup that many Nepalis would not support him even as a constitutional monarch.
The politicians, however, have little more to offer. Venal, corrupt, preoccupied by factional infighting, they have failed to respond to the country’s daunting problems. Their common opposition to the King masks their disunity and lack of strategic vision. During Nepal’s 15-year experiment with democracy, power was traded among a tiny clique who failed to improve conditions across the country.
As a result, the Maoist rebellion, like that of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, tragically has gained ground. Purportedly fighting for an end to feudal rule, the insurgents, and their history of brutality in the areas they control, makes them a real regional threat. China fears the support “Maoists” may give to Tibetan exiles; India sees a strong link with the Naxalites, Marxist nihilists still active in India’s northern states. Both countries fear that a Maoist victory or a disorderly collapse could turn Nepal into another failed state, exporting drugs, crime and regional instability.
India and China, the two countries most able to influence landlocked Nepal and with most at stake, should therefore do something historic: set aside their rivalry, call a conference on Nepal’s future and jointly lay out, and enforce, a return to normality, stability and good government.
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