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Latin America, once a region of autocratic generals, has been embra-cing democracy for years. Senhor da Silva’s victory in 2002 was a landmark for the Centre Left. He fought his campaign as a radical populist, but in power has proved to be far more restrained. By contrast, Hugo Chávez in Venezuela has chosen to be a populist firebrand. The new President of Boli-via, Evo Morales, may yet follow suit. Both of them, bizarrely, appear to look to Fidel Castro’s Cuba as a role model. It is to Senhor da Silva’s credit that he has eschewed that lazy route to popularity in favour of sound stewardship of the economy and political moderation.
Under Senhor da Silva, significant amounts of debt have been paid off. Within the next two years, Brazil will owe the International Monetary Fund nothing. Tight fiscal targets have been met, the country has a healthy trade surplus and inflation has been tamed. The reward has been robust job creation, higher wages and an improved international rating for Brazil’s remaining debt. For the first time in the country’s history, the economy will not be a burning issue in this year ’s election campaign. Meanwhile, the President’s pioneering anti-poverty programme, the Family Purse, is being used as an exemplar by the World Bank.
By the standards of other emerging economies, Brazil’s growth rate, averaging around 2.6 per cent over the past three years, is disappointing. But, to his credit, the President has insisted that steady, sustainable growth, based on investment, fiscal prudence and greater social equality, offers a far better long-term prospect for lifting millions out of poverty than the bust-prone bubbles of the past. And Brazil sensibly remains committed to Mercosur, the regional common market.
Senhor da Silva is not without his problems. A corruption scandal involving some of his staff has dented his popularity. Because of the high interest rates needed to conquer inflation, Brazil’s economy has not been growing as fast as it could. But a recent opinion poll suggests that the President has edged ahead of his rivals and most analysts expect him to win a second term this October. In a politically turbulent region, that alone would be a significant achievement.
Britain should be interested in Brazil and not just when a president pays a state visit. Over the next 25 years Brazil, like others including Indonesia and Mexico, will emerge as more than a regional power. That is already clear from the crucial role that Senhor da Silva will play in the world trade negotiations. This is a nation that, if it exploits its sizeable assets smartly, will be far more than merely a football superpower.
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