Most Iraqis are probably less interested in the third anniversary of the US-led military intervention in their country than where they and their nation will be three years hence. And despite the undoubted and avoidable mistakes made in the 12 months after the Baathist regime expired, there are grounds for realistic optimism about that future. Although there have been hardships a-plenty since 2003, Saddam Hussein’s attempts to obtain popular sympathy for himself from the dock during his trial have been met with derision. Whatever else they may think about their present situation, the vast majority of Iraqis do not want a return to the dire days of his dictatorship.

The small minority that would turn the clock back find themselves in an alliance of convenience with Sunni religious extremists and al-Qaeda affiliates. They collectively make the security situation in parts of Iraq precarious. The bomb at the Golden Mosque at Samarra four weeks ago was the most overt attempt to ignite outright civil war. While it has caused bloodletting on a horrific scale, it did not succeed in its primary objective. The current Operation Swarmer being undertaken by US and Iraqi troops in the Samarra area is an effort to break the terrorist network that was respons-ible for that savage sacrilege. Most Iraqis will surely wish their soldiers well.

For the progress of the army has been a positive development over the past 12 months. Not only are the numbers enlisted up sharply (soon to exceed 250,000), despite intense intimidation, but a drive to integrate Shia, Sunni and Kurdish recruits into a single fighting force has borne fruit, particularly in the Baghdad divisions. The comparative discipline of the army after the outrageous attack on the Shia shrine partly explains why some of the most pessimistic predictions of a collapse of the Iraqi State failed to materialise. It is also plain from their involvement in serious military activities today that the army is a real and not symbolic organisation.

Iraq’s politicians would do well to follow the example of their compatriots in uniform. Some three months have passed since elections were held for a permanent parliament. The turnout at that poll was impressive. The subsequent bargaining, by sharp contrast, has been excessive in its character and duration. This was never destined to be an easy exercise; thanks to Saddam, Iraq has little experience of democracy in action. Furthermore, the widespread consensus that a national unity government should be sought — an admirable accord — has actually made political life more complicated as the spoils of office have to be shared among several parties.

It is time for this horse trading to be completed. Experience over the past three years indicates that there is a direct correlation between cohesion or not in the political process and security on the ground. Iraqis have shown an entrepreneurial spirit since their liberation, which will serve them well, and they are obtaining armed forces in which they can have confidence. The politicians now need to honour their end of the national bargain.