Few politicians believe in the dictum that “attack is the best means of defence” more than the Chancellor. He was faced with the dilemma of having to concede that his growth projections for the present year were far too optimistic and that the public finances are not in as pretty a position as he had predicted either. Rather than so much as nibble at humble pie, however, he compared the economy now not with how he had said it would be but with the nadir of the Major era. As the age when the Tories ruled becomes ever more distant, this trick is destined to become less effective. Gordon Brown will, however, squeeze it for all that he can.

Even by the standards of parliamentary theatre, therefore, the Commons witnessed brilliant ham acting. Mr Brown lowered his voice several octaves as he spoke of the old folk whom he would keep warm this winter. His oratory soared again as he spoke of the opportunities that his new national youth community service would offer worthy youngsters. With this initiative he shamelessly appropriated a policy theme associated with David Cameron. That it is to be funded by the Treasury taking control of “dormant” bank accounts sets a distinctly dubious precedent.

Despite his bravado, Mr Brown used the details of the Pre-Budget Report to engage in some tactical pessimism. He cut the growth forecast for 2005 to 1.75 per cent rather than the 2 per cent widely expected and he shaved back his expectations for next year while he was at it. His latest figures on borrowing look on the dark side of probabil-ity. The charitable might contend that having been improperly optimistic this year, the Chancellor has learnt his lesson and has resolved to be far more careful in future. The cynical may conclude that he is preparing for a “Britain bounces back” Budget in March.

It is unlikely that the public finances will actually be in as unhealthy a state as Mr Brown has indicated. Indeed, allowing for the extent to which his original growth figure was missed, the deterioration in tax revenues was modest. And buried deep in the various complicated documents on “tax avoidance” are bound to be some measures which come close to being de facto tax rises, albeit aimed at narrow sections of the electorate who do not command the sympathy of most voters. The Chancellor’s raid on the oil companies, for example, fits a well-established pattern.

Mr Brown has thus been politically shrewd (as ever) and he ruthlessly exploited his advantage in being allowed two bites of the parliamentary debating cherry yesterday to ignore the intellectual logic offered by George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, and hit back with astute partisan pantomime. The real economy, though, while it will be stronger next year, is not in a condition which merits complacency.

Even if Mr Brown’s latest borrowing figures are deliberately harsh, there is still cause for concern that the point at which they are projected to fall is being put back to the end of the decade. His warning that public sector pay will have to be contained in the coming year reflects a crunch on expenditure that is inevitable. There remain profound doubts about whether ministers have secured value for money from the vast increases in “investment” that they boast of. These may be problems to be faced by the next Chancellor, not this one. Yet there is not much doubt that the economic legacy of Chancellor Brown will be the inheritance (tax-free) of Prime Minister Brown.