Every December fishing communities in Northern and Western Europe brace themselves for an unseasonal “gift” from Brussels. It comes in the form of seemingly ever tighter rules on how much of what they can fish, where and when. EU fishing ministers settled on next year’s quotas yesterday, yet with a hint of unusual charity. The conclusion of 20-hour talks was marked with back-slapping all round as fishing ministers congratulated themselves on a “balanced” deal that would preserve both fish stocks and fishing communities. UK fleets joined in. However, such collective rejoicing should set alarm bells ringing.

Ministers felt able to relax some restrictions. Quotas for prawns in the North Sea and the Bay of Biscay were raised by almost a third. Those trawling for monkfish in the Irish Sea or hake in most fishing grounds also received modest increases in the permitted amounts. There are to be average cuts of 15 per cent. But the meat of the deal concerned cod. And here the cele- brating looks worryingly premature.

King Cod is in danger of losing more than just its throne. Stocks are alarmingly low, with scientists forecasting, persuasively, continuing depletion. Relentless pursuit of cod has left North Sea stocks at about 46,000 tonnes, less than a third of the recommended minimum. In some waters off the West of Scotland, numbers are so low that scientists claim they cannot provide reliable estimates. Fishermen retort that they are having little trouble in returning to port with cod, and even that their numbers are slightly up. But marine biologists have a word for this — hyperaggregation, the tendency of a pursued population to crowd together, thus providing an easy target.

Yet fishing ministers failed to confront reality. In the eastern Baltic they have increased cod quotas and the window for cod fishing, to the consternation of Sweden, the only country not to endorse yesterday’s deal. Under the agreement, the maximum number of days an EU fishing boat can go to sea will be cut from 180 days to 172. But Ben Bradshaw, the Environment Minister, who chaired the talks, won an extra four days at sea for UK fishermen, a concession to Scotland because of its previous sacrifices. This may be a small negotiating triumph. But whether it is in the long-term interests of British fishermen and fish is less clear, especially if the former are hoping to base future earnings on cod.

Some 2,500 miles west of the North Sea, on the Grand Banks that stretch 200 miles off the coast of Newfoundland, lies a history lesson. The first 15th-century European explorers found waters teeming with cod. In the 1960s this remained the case. But 30 years of industrial fishing sent stocks into sudden freefall. A moratorium was hastily imposed 13 years ago. But to this day stocks have not replenished. A blanket moratorium is a dramatic step, but bans only work if they are imposed in time.

They can work. A ban on anchovy fishing in the Bay of Biscay is to be lifted because fish have returned. Without one for cod, future generations may have no idea what the British staple tasted like.