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In Vienna, the International Atomic Energy Agency is preparing for a swift convening of its 35-nation governing board to declare Tehran in breach of its obligations. In Washington, officials are looking at what punitive action could be taken that would both command global support and would put effective pressure on Iran.
No longer is there any talk of further futile talks — except in China, hungry for Iran’s huge oil exports, which called for restraint on all sides and more negotiations. Even Russia, which offered Iran research facilities in its own laboratories, has been angered by Iran’s cavalier rejection of this face-saver. Moscow now says it no longer excludes turning over the Iranian dossier to the Security Council.
Such a decision would put extra pressure on Iran, especially if Western moves garnered vocal support from other countries, deeply worried by this resurgence of Persian nationalism under the guise of Shia Islamic fervour. But Iran has clearly calculated that the West has few sticks to wield.
It believes that military action is out of the question. Iran has dispersed its nuclear activities around some 300 sites. Israel, despite the threats from Iran’s bellicose President, knows that any Israeli action, open or covert, would invite immediate reprisals from Iran and its surrogates.
Economic sanctions, the obvious measure, would be difficult to enforce: the regime is awash with cash earned from oil exports, totalling $36 billion last year, and has reportedly been stockpiling medicines and essential supplies to survive a trade embargo for years. Given the temptation of high oil prices, some states would probably seek ways to cut deals and flout any international sanctions. Saddam Hussein showed the way.
There are, however, other measures. Iranians, many strongly pro-Western, are a proud people with an ancient history. Being treated as a pariah would be insulting. A ban on football fixtures in or with a football-mad Iran would have massive impact. A travel ban on diplomats would hurt Iran’s status. Denying contacts with the hardliners appointed by President Ahmedinejad might reinforce the growing opposition to this naive extremist, who has become an embarrassment to many.
What matters is that the world shows it will not tolerate an arrogant flouting of nuclear treaty obligations. This is not just a spat with the West. Russia may one day find Iranian nuclear weapons flowing to Chechen extremists; China may not be so complacent if Muslim separatism in Xinjiang gathers pace. Both must support action in the Security Council. And that action should be swiftly taken.
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