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Sir, Paul Simons (Weather Eye, Jan 4) misrepresents WeatherAction’s long-range January forecasts. We expected some exceptionally cold weather later in the month, not an “apocalyptic freeze” in the first week, as he claims. We said the first week “will turn colder” — which it did.
In the end the weather is our judge. On November 1 on this page I warned of two major storms to come “around Nov 8-13” and “around Nov 24-28”. They both occurred. The North Sea storm surge of November 9 entailed evacuations of 2,000 from the Yarmouth coast, unprecedented sea defence measures in Holland and notable winds in Scotland. The latter in which we had explicitly forecast “extremely stormy sea conditions and alarming build-up of swell” from 11 months ahead was confirmed on December 1 by the largest sea swell on record on Western coasts, as well as damaging winds in Britain, the Channel, France and Belgium. Paul Simons denies these successes.
Of the 16 significant flood or rain/storm events WeatherAction forecast for Britain since June, all occurred in some sense — or 14 out of 16 under more stringent measures. The Met Office’s summer forecasts were pretty well the opposite of our flood forecasts. It seems proponents of “global warming” are so desperate to claim weather extremes as “theirs” that they cannot countenance our 85 per cent reliable predictions through solar-based methods.
Piers Corbyn
WeatherAction, long range forecasters
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That article reads as if someone is throwing their toys out of the pram. Piers Corbyn says : "It seems proponents of 'global warming' are so desperate to claim weather extremes as 'theirs' ". Well speak for yourself. Theres also no need to have a pop at the Met Office, especially as they don't use a roulette wheel to predict the weather.
Wesley, Andover, Hampshire
Perhaps Mr Corbyn would also like to comment on the November forecast which promised us gales of the severity of the 1703 windstorm. Such a level of damage did not occur despite his claims of a successful forecast.
Judging by the forecasts for the rest of the month I have in front of me, from the more traditional weather models, it looks as though the rest of the month will remain mild. I do hope come the end of the month Mr Corbyn will be able to comment on his cold 2nd half of January forecast that was so compelling in his mind that he had to tell the UK Press about it at the start of the month.
Richard
Dr Richard Dixon, London,
I notice Mr Corbyn has no excuse for the absence of the cold spell, which was what Mr Simons was dicussing. Instead he chooses to misdirect the discussion into those rare successes that he claims he's had. I seem to recall his window for this cold weather was 15-21st January, I haven't seen it yet, wherefore is it Piers? Just because you put your money where your mouth is at the bookmakers, and win occasionally, doesn't make your method a success.
On his website he claims his method has been 'independently verified' by Dennis Wheeler from Sunderland University. He appears to be the only one who views Wheeler's study in that light as no-one else does...
Piers, sorry but you're losing credibility, at least the MetOffice get it right more than you appear to. I wouldn't worry about anyone stealing your methods, so why not open it up to proper rigorous scientific study?
Rob, Hull, UK
Corbyn's forecast for January contained these words, publically available on the Internet:
"After a mixed and increasingly cold start, January will be an icy blast, the coldest and windiest part colder and windier than 1987, more like 1740."
and
"January 2008 will turn colder in the first week with sleet or snow likely in places. Generally cold conditions continue through the month and overall January 2008 will be unusually cold with heavy snow at times in the South and SouthEast. Overall January 2008 is likely to be as cold or colder than 1987 when averages over day and night were only 0.8C above freezing in Central England.
It is likely to be in one of the six coldest Januarys for 100 years and is expected to include at least one exceptionally cold spell similar in type to that experienced in part of January 1987 and in the legendary January 1740 when biting Easterly gales or near gales at times and snow wreaked havoc.
There is likely to be a number of days when temperatures in parts stay below freezing all day. The lowest night temperatures in parts of the Midlands, North England or Scotland could be minus 17C or possibly colder at times."
All that couldn't be further from the truth!
Sandy Tomkins, Birmingham, UK
Corbyn's forecast for January contained these words, publically available on the Internet:
"After a mixed and increasingly cold start, January will be an icy blast, the coldest and windiest part colder and windier than 1987, more like 1740."
and
"January 2008 will turn colder in the first week with sleet or snow likely in places. Generally cold conditions continue through the month and overall January 2008 will be unusually cold with heavy snow at times in the South and SouthEast. Overall January 2008 is likely to be as cold or colder than 1987 when averages over day and night were only 0.8C above freezing in Central England.
It is likely to be in one of the six coldest Januarys for 100 years and is expected to include at least one exceptionally cold spell similar in type to that experienced in part of January 1987 and in the legendary January 1740 when biting Easterly gales or near gales at times and snow wreaked havoc.
There is likely to be a number of days when temperatures in parts stay below freezing all day. The lowest night temperatures in parts of the Midlands, North England or Scotland could be minus 17C or possibly colder at times."
All that couldn't be further from the truth!
Sandy Tomkins, Birmingham, UK
Corbyn's forecast for January contained these words, publically available on the Internet:
"After a mixed and increasingly cold start, January will be an icy blast, the coldest and windiest part colder and windier than 1987, more like 1740."
and
"January 2008 will turn colder in the first week with sleet or snow likely in places. Generally cold conditions continue through the month and overall January 2008 will be unusually cold with heavy snow at times in the South and SouthEast. Overall January 2008 is likely to be as cold or colder than 1987 when averages over day and night were only 0.8C above freezing in Central England.
It is likely to be in one of the six coldest Januarys for 100 years and is expected to include at least one exceptionally cold spell similar in type to that experienced in part of January 1987 and in the legendary January 1740 when biting Easterly gales or near gales at times and snow wreaked havoc.
There is likely to be a number of days when temperatures in parts stay below freezing all day. The lowest night temperatures in parts of the Midlands, North England or Scotland could be minus 17C or possibly colder at times."
All that couldn't be further from the truth!
Sandy Tomkins, Birmingham, UK
What Climate Change? That was last century!
âThe fact is that the global temperature of 2007 is statistically the same as 2006 as well as every year since 2001. Global warming has, temporarily or permanently, ceased. Temperatures across the world are not increasing as they should according to the fundamental theory behind global warming â the greenhouse effect. â
http://www.newstatesman.com/200712190004
Dr Alister McFarquhar, Cambridge, UK
On my reading of Paul Simons' piece that Piers Corbyn takes exception to, I did not gather the impression that a âforecastâ by Mr Corbynâs outfit of extreme cold was suggested for early January; quite the opposite I read it as they were indicating such an occurrence later in the month (of January).
Mr. Corbyn, in raising this is, I fancy, merely revealing what an accomplished self-publicist he is - for himself and his organisation.
Astoundingly, he calls a warning of a storm in each of two 6 and 5 day windows, a forecast? I would call that a guess! That this sort of non-information appears to have a value to it also suggests to me that we collectively continue to seek snake-oil and rabbits feet in the face of the future.
There are of course 10 more days to go in January and his reiterated statement "exceptionally cold weather later in the month", can readily be assessed soon. That is, if anybody is bothered, apart from Mr. C.
ROHAN, Solihull, UK
This deliberately ignores the key point. The effect of climate change is to exacerbate extreme weather events. Solar activity may help to create specific weather events, and hence allow them to be predicted. But it is our warming climate that determines the magnitude of all these events. In short, these guys should stop squabbling and work together!
Dr Richard Milne, Edinburgh,