Sir, What appears to be the imminent implosion of US policy on Iraq (Comment, Oct 21) is an unmitigated tragedy for everyone except, probably, the death merchants of al-Qaeda. Bad though it is, Iraq could get much worse: outright civil war; a messy quasi-partition with bitter fighting over oil and water; a further exodus of the educated middle classes; the establishment of an al-Qaeda “state” feasting on the mangled remains of the Sunni heartlands; serious disruption to Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Jordan; further inflammation of the Palestine conflict and, finally, the prospect of continuing regional instability and possibly another war as costly as the last Iran-Iraq one. We may come to see the days when a few score people died every day in Baghdad as comparatively halcyon.

It was because such a hideous scenario was clearly a risk that some of us felt that opposing a war that was going to happen anyway was not a responsible option. It is still the case that there is no plan B.

If the establishment of democracy fails in Iraq the occupying forces have no legitimate role to play there. If there is no law and order, then democracy, as one form of government among many, will have failed in actually governing. Yet there can be no law and order when the streets are prey to the anarchic designs of uncontained militias. It follows that they simply must be faced down and a way through or around parliamentary and constitutional difficulties found. Perhaps Nouri al-Maliki could declare a state of emergency and govern by decree. His first step should be to arrest Moqtada al-Sadr.

Britain should be prepared for an increase in troop numbers and a tough drawn-out fight. The UN is now being tested by Iraq just as the League of Nations was tested by Abyssinia. From the chrysalis of the postwar stalemate something approaching an effective world government is emerging. This huge prize cannot be won without the involvement of an activist outward-looking US.

Did we really think we could remake the Middle East without major effort and sacrifice? Occupation-lite has cost the world’s wealthiest economy a few hundred billion dollars and no one has really noticed. It has cost a few thousand coalition lives, fewer than died in an hour in the D-Day landings.

In the meantime stock markets have surged ahead, the colossal resilience of the world economy having shrugged off a doubling in oil-prices. All the lights are still on in the West.

NICK MARTIN-CLARK
London N4

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