Click for more debate from Times Online and the Battle for China

In the coming decade, China will be fundamental to the solution of our three main global problems –– the environment, energy, and the economy. In all of these, China will help decide how the world proceeds, and how, as a race, we are able to make sustainable and prosperous futures.

China has paid a huge price for the manufacturing and export based economy on which it has based its spectacular growth. It is now the world’s largest carbon emission producer and the World Bank estimates that it has 16 of the world’s 20 most polluted cities.

The Chinese people have expressed dismay at the quality of their air, which leads to 400 thousand deaths each year. Water quality is also reaching critical levels, around 70-80 per cent is contaminated. Nor is this just a domestic problem. 25 per cent of the pollution in California has been traced back to China.

The environment is in this state because of energy. 70 per cent of China’s energy comes from highly polluting coal. And while it has set itself ambitious targets, it has so far failed to reach them. Energy efficiency is six times worse than Japan’s and four times worse than the European Union’s.

The hunger for new sources of energy has also pushed China into contentious markets in Africa and the Middle East. Such exploration may be the trigger for potential conflicts in the years ahead.

Then there is the sustainability of China’s economic model. In the words of former Premier Zhu Rongji, China has become the factory of the world. 60 per cent of its GDP growth is due to manufacturing.

Yet China has not created its own global champions, nor travelled very far to becoming a knowledge economy. In 2005, 88 per cent of hi-tech exports were from Foreign Invested Enterprises working in China.

This reliance for economic growth on low-end products worries the Chinese leadership. In order to become a middle-income country, China needs to change the structure of its economy radically.

The greatest challenge facing China is to discover new technologies and methods that are less wasteful than the ones used in western countries. Currently, if China were to deliver even half of the UK’s per capita GDP, most of the world’s accessible energy and resources would be used up by the 2030s.

The Chinese have as much right as any one else to a comfortable life in which they can fulfil their potential. The task for everyone in the coming decades is to help them achieve this in a sustainable way. This is something we need to work on together. It will be the final and most remarkable stage of China’s dramatic integration into the global economy.

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Dr Kerry Brown is senior fellow at Chatham House on the Asia Programme, and author of `Struggling Giant, China in the 21st Century’. He is currently working on a history of the Communist Party of China. He can be contacted on bkerrychina@aol.com.