Harry Metcalfe
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Some predictions for the year ahead: petrol prices will go up, fuel duty will go up, the cost of buying a new car will go up, and, this is the interesting bit, the value of some second-hand cars will go up quite a lot.
Yes, you read that correctly. While car depreciation is regarded as a near certainty, it is possible to buy a car, use it, and also see your investment rise.
In general, depreciation is measured as a percentage of a car’s value after three years or 36,000 miles, compared with its price when you bought it — new or used. A car with very heavy depreciation could be worth 30% of its sale value
after three years, while a car with low depreciation may retain 75%.
Choose carefully, though, and you can avoid even the smallest decrease in value, and not just by buying established classics. Modestly priced used cars can show a decent return — think Ford Sierra as well as Ferrari Scuderia.
It’s unlikely you will get rich this way but you will be able to enjoy driving while not having to worry about depreciation. Spotting what makes a good buy is the tricky bit but there are some rules to bear in mind.
Most importantly, a car needs to have already been through its main depreciation period and to have settled down to a price that has remained stable for a while. The catalyst as to whether it will ever start to rise in value again depends on a mix of factors, including how the car was perceived (by the press and buyers alike) when it was launched and how many were built originally. The final, crucial, factor is how many survive today, as that will determine whether there are plenty of examples to satisfy demand or whether supply is lacking, forcing prices to rise.
As founder of Evo magazine, cars are my business as well as my passion. Here is my shortlist of used cars canny buyers should consider in 2010.
FERRARI F40
If you’ve got deep pockets, the iconic Ferrari F40 is starting to look distinctly good value, but how can a car costing £250,000 be seen as a bargain? Well, Enzos are selling for around £850,000 and a new Ferrari 458 is going to cost you the best part of £200,000, so being able to buy one of the most exciting Ferraris ever produced for a quarter of a million can’t last. Within a year I expect prices to start with a 3 — and they won’t stop there.
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