Richard Beeston, Diplomatic Editor
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President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad must be fuming. There was a time not long ago when his outbursts predicting the fiery destruction of his enemies would have grabbed the world’s headlines. Today he has been comprehensively eclipsed by President Vladimir Putin of Russia who has adopted similar language against the West and has the nuclear tipped missiles to make the point more forcefully.
The Kremlin leader has openly threatened to target his missiles at Europe and raised the spectre of a new Cold War between Russia and the West. All this because America is seeking to build an anti-missile defence shield in eastern Europe against the threat one day of an Iranian nuclear missile being fired at the West.
The Russian leader’s language may be extreme, but it is not unexpected. For months, the former KGB officer has been raising his anti-Western rhetoric in an effort to re-establish Russia as a world power.
Western businesses have seen their investments in Russia’s energy sector renationalised by the state. America’s behaviour has been likened to Nazi Germany. Britain has been branded “stupid” for daring to suggest that Russia should hand over a suspect in the murder of Alexander Litvinenko. Several former Soviet and East Bloc countries, now firmly in the Western camp, are involved in bruising battles with Moscow.
While it may be difficult for America and Europe to see themselves as a threat to Moscow, in Russian eyes the Western challenge is all too clear.
The European Union and Nato have expanded steadily eastward since the collapse of communism and even now they are heavily involved in countries like Ukraine, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Georgia, which Russia regards as its traditional sphere of influence.
The brutal crackdown against the weak liberal political forces in Russia is a signal that the Kremlin will not tolerate the sort of popular movements which led to Georgia’s Rose Revolution and Ukraine’s Orange Revolution.
The final straw was the anti-missile defence shield that America wants to deploy in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Russia’s more assertive and nationalistic policy has been hugely popular with ordinary Russians, who want to redress the perceived humiliation suffered by Russia after the collapse of the Soviet empire.
So how worried should the seven richest and most powerful leaders of the world be when they sit down on Wednesday across the table from Mr Putin, the most senior G8 leader and least welcome?
The important notion to dispel is that the West and Russia are about to resume the Cold War.
Russia is a far weaker country today than it was during the Soviet era. Its economy may be buoyed by high oil and gas prices, but in other respects it is still very weak. Its military is staffed by poorly equipped conscripts. When it recently decided to buzz a Royal Navy exercise off the Scottish coast, it sent two turbo-prop Bear bombers that are Cold War relics better off in a museum.
Russia’s population is falling by nearly one million people a year due to the serious social and health problems that have been neglected by the state. Russian infrastructure remains primitive. It desperately needs Western investment for its future development and Western technology to exploit its mineral resources.
Despite its weakness, Russia remains an important country that the West needs to engage with. It has a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. Its cooperation is vital in tackling international crises like the future of Kosovo, the search for peace in the Middle East, and a solution to the nuclear threat posed by Iran and North Korea. Its energy resources, although unreliable, remain vital for Europe’s industries.
The best way to respond to the bluster and the rattle of Cossack sabres is to engage Russia properly. Distracted by the war on terror, the quagmire in Iraq and the future of Europe, the West has a lot of catching up to do.
A joint strategy on Russia needs to be agreed by the key Western powers, notably the new European leadership of Chancellor Merkel, President Sarkozy and Gordon Brown.
Russia’s bullying of its neighbours, its campaign against dissidents at home and abroad and other unacceptable behaviour must be challenged with one voice by the West.
Equally, Western nations should avoid provoking Russia and where possible show the country the respect it believes it deserves.
Culturally and socially Russians regard themselves as Europeans. They choose to send to their children to schools in England and to spend their summers on Mediterranean beaches.
Mr Putin has less than a year left in office. Western nations will want to ensure that his successor is welcomed back into the club.
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Agree with DS. The least wanted things in Russia are the new cold war and arm race. We, Russians have too much to do at home in terms of economic growth, building effective government and social system. Nowadays we do need neither advice, nor help from West. So why don't West let us be?
Alexey, Moscow, Russia
This has been simmering for some time. I recall chancing upon a website a few years ago from a bunch of neocons trying to portray Russia as the same old foe, and at about the same time articles on pravda.ru (yes, it really does still exist) began to get more hysterical about Western "plots", some of which verged on the farcical. But that was all just the usual loonies on both sides.
But for it to escalate like this is profoundly worrying - especially since two months ago in these very pages President Putin was personally telling us how we're all one big happy family now.
I'm worried that this may be an indication that the Siloviki have already won the fight for the succession, and that President Putin's rhetoric may actually be a sign that he's whatever the Kremlin equivalent of a lame duck is.
In which case it becomes doubly important to engage Russia and remind it that it needs all the friends it can keep.
Ian Kemmish, Bigglwade, UK
I don't understand why Putin is so bent out shape by our Star Wars program. It just does not work. The program has never had even a single honest and realistic successful test. Shortly after he took office, Bush removed Star Wars tests from th supervision of the Pentagon's office for insuring the integrity of weapons tests (in addition to removing the entire Star Wars program from financial oversight). Bush would do this only if he knew the system does not and will not work. This entire program has been an utter failure and a complete waste of the American taxpayer's money. So I fail to see why Putin cares if the US continues to throw good money after bad. At least the Maginot Line worked--the Wehrmacht had to go around it. Soviet missiles will go straight through Star Wars like a hot knife through butter.
If anyone has a right to be upset over Star Wars, it's the American taxpayer.
Garak, Tampa, FL, USA
Right, historically and genetically the Russians are a part of Europe. But Europe, especially the 'new Europeans', has been trying hard to squeeze us out of the continent and to convince us that we are closer to Mongols. In fact the EU is on the verge of admitting Turkey (Asian, islamic), while keeping Russia (Caucasian, Christian) at bay. Well, you have almost succeeded, we are not averse to being Asians, considering that it is now the fashionable race. Russian population dying out? The immigrants are streaming into Russia and the numbers are sky-rocketing. Russia insignificant economically? A fairy tale. Russia needs the West? Not more than it needs China and India. Russia weak militarily? A joke. Russia belligerent? An insult. Live and let live is our slogan now. We are too tired of revolutions, wars, reforms, conflicts. Just try to mind your own business for a while and leave us in peace.
Pavel, Rostov, Russia
Sir,
Well said!
Like 99.9% of politicians the world over, it's the same primal drives that make it a game for them, and a worry for the rest of us.
SC, London, United Kingdom
Russia must accept fact that it is again in its natural borders from late 17th Century. No sphere of influence in Central Europe or on Ukraine. These areas are free and any trying of interfere will be treated as an agressive imperialistic action in stalinist manner!
Sebastian Rysz, Lodz, Poland
Georhe Bush has reached the bottom of public approval
in the U.S.; he is in the global pit internationally, and his
global bravado has been shredded in Iraq. On the other hand, Russia is out of the poverty and the gangland business of the 90's; has cleared Chesnya; revitalized its army, and Putin has attained a global leader status with measured responses to global issues, and tough stand on Russia's interests. And central nation's leaders who have been flirting with the U.S. are returning to Russia's side because they don't want to be the losers at the U.S side. They have realized that partnering with a global bully can only put them in the line of fire of anti-Americanism everywhere. And at a time that the U.S. is viewed as a mauled paper tiger in Iraq, Putin comes confident like
a Siberian tiger in Europe with a growl to reckon with.
Nikos Retsos, River Grove, U.S.
Ever since Russia, Germany, and France united to oppose the US' war in Iraq at the U.N., America's policy has been to divide the EU and Russia. Though I find it amusing that Europe is so easily duped into playing its role as an irrelevant pawn, it's unfortunate that the 'West' (US + EU) don't realize the natural partner they have in Russia. Hopefully a changing of the guard in both Russia and the U.S. will result in a more sensible and realist policy.
Jesse Heath, Washington, DC,
Living in Moscow as a foreigner(Kenyan), and a keen observer of Putin's foreign policy, the west+ America has to get ready for tougher and a bumpy ride ride with Russia on board, especially with the uncertainties of the future Russian leader.
dorothy, Moscow, Russia.
I see no reason for the US to be building anti-missile defenses in Eastern Europe. No reason, that is, but to tick off the Russians and herd the silly Europeans back into the US-dominated NATO war camp. Russia's economic recovery came as a shock to Washington. While Americans were busy bombing Serbia, Iraq, and Afghanistan, those sneaky Russians found their checkbooks and balanced their accounts. Now the White House strategists are in a big hurry to capitalize on the Cold War gains, but they are about ten years too late. The current crisis is not about the missiles: Russians don't seriously expect Washington to drop its plans for ABM defenses. This conflict is the same old tug-of-war over influence in Europe. If Prague and Warsaw volunteered to be the rope in this game, well... everyone is entitled to their share of stupid mistakes.
Veniamin Nikolayev, Philadelphia, USA/Pennsylvania
now i´m expecting a new europeam spirit with russians. we shoudn´t forget that they are europeans too, and we don´t have to colaborate creating a fear atmosphere against them. their missiles are nearer europe than america.and the mineral resources too. let´s see the two faces of the blade...
jesus, madrid,
Dawn - you have some curiously Russian syntax going on there. You been out of Blighty for a while?
Malcolm A , London, UK
The west's strategy towards Russia needs to be let it develop unhindered. Without continual provocation, Russia doesn't need to respond. Any state will take measures to defend itself.
This is the west's new cold war, NOT Russia's.
DS, Darwin, Australia
Putin's successor is going to be annointed by him, and may only last a single term of office before Putin constitutionally returns for another eight years as president. In the meantime Putin may take a prominent role such as Mayor of Moscow or St Petersberg, or head of the FSB (former KGB). If the West's best response is to wait until Putin is out of the picture we are in for a long bumpy ride. Given that reality, it is better to face up to a bully now, than have to face a bigger and bolder bully in the future.
G, London,
I am pleasantly surprised by the amount of positive responses to the President Putin's speech from the Western and American audience. It means that people here are not so easily brainwashed by so called democratic european media that usually gives only one point of view (unlike even the Russian media), especially when it comes to controversial political issues involving Russia. While disagreeing with Mr Putin on many of his political actions, I think this speech was a real eye-opener for many American and European people who would hear every day one and only version of events served by their unscrupulous politicians.
Dawn, London, UK
Why the heck do we need a missile defense system in Eastern Europe? It seems that so much of the crisis is because of this useless ABM system my country seems intent on building. And let's not forget how we pulled out of the ABM treaty altogether. I agree with the author's assessment of Putin and Russia, but ultimately I blame my own president for restarting the Cold War.
Noah, New York, NY
Dear Sir,
it seems our president did not look deep enough into Mr.Putin's eyes.If he did, he would have seen a lot of old wine in new bottles.
Werner Kolb, North Woodmere, USA NY 11581
There's very little trust between politicians from different parts of the world. It's never been terribly important what the people think now in the EU or Russia. What matters is the ruling power which is firmly held by politicians who will do whatever they wish. The EU is no different from Russia in this respect. Ruling groups are always dissociated from the mass of the people because they have their own aims, bearing little of no relationship to the people's wishes.
Missiles placed close to its borders has to be seen as a threat regardless on any words from EU politicians viewed from the Russian perspective. After all the UK is renewing Trident without missiles being placed near our borders so it hard to blame Russia. It would be seen as dereliction of duty not to to put missiles in place to meet the possible threat from the EU. No doubt nowadays missiles can be reprogrammed for a new target at a moments notice so talk of any target other than Russia can't count for much . After all how often to politicians ever speak the truth? Far too infrequently for them to be believed by other than the credulous.
Russia easily has enough money from its oil and gas reserves to afford to put in place missiles to target the EU in response just in case.
Derek Emery, Bedworth, UK