Kenneth Denby in Rangoon
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A crucial United Nations mission to Burma is facing failure before it has even begun, after the country's ruling generals refused to allow a meeting with the detained democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi.
UN, Chinese and western diplomats are attempting to pressure the Burmese generals to allow Ibrahim Gambari, the UN Secretary General's Special Representative on Burma, to meet Ms Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize winner, who has been held under house arrest for 12 of the past 18 years.
Such a meeting is regarded by western governments as crucial in urging reform on the junta, which for the time being at least appears to have successfully suppressed weeks of rising demonstrations by monks and ordinary Burmese. Mr Gambari is coming under pressure to refuse to meet Burma's leading general, Than Shwe, if he is denied a separate meeting with Ms Suu Kyi.
"What Gambari's got to do is be prepared to provoke a crisis," a western diplomat told The Times in Rangoon this afternoon. "
If the stakes are high enough, it will be difficult for [him] to avoid that. What's essential is that the UN needs to keep alive the issues that the monks have raised."
After two days of a ruthless and sometimes bloody crackdown, the streets of central Rangoon were edgy but quiet early this afternoon. Thousands of police and soldiers are deployed across the city, blocking off the biggest pagodas and main roads, and occupying traffic islands and street corners to prevent huddles of protesters from forming.
The cinnamon-robed monks, who were marching in their tens of thousands a week ago, are almost completely absent, having been forced into their monasteries after mass arrests in the early hours of Thursday and Friday.
The suppression of the democracy activists and the cowing of the monks has created a vacuum in the pro-democracy movement which, for the time being, remain unfilled. Western diplomats in Rangoon are anxious that the suppression of the demonstrations will undermine the intense pressure which was bearing down on the regime to loosen its monopoly on power.
"The situation's turned on the streets, and there's clearly an attempt on the part of the regime to get back to business as usual," a UN official in Rangoon told The Times.
"Gambari's visit is critical to making the regime understand that events of the past four weeks have brought out fundamental issues that need to be resolved."
"What has happened over the last four weeks has come out of fundamental grievances and suffering. The generals are trying to say, 'This is just a blip - we're in control.' We need to keep up the pressure...to go back to the normal mode of operating is just impossible."
Mr Gambari's visit has the backing of the UN Security Council, including the closest thing the generals have to a friend, China. He will deliver a personal message from the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon. But in the past, he has been criticised for being insufficiently tough on the generals, and there are many western diplomats who regard him as a feeble negotiator.
On his two previous visits, he met with Ms Suu Kyi. If he is barred from doing so this time, but shakes the hand of Than Shwe, the UN will be criticised for failing to stand up to a regime with blood on its hands. Scores of peaceful demonstrators and one Japanese photographer have been killed by soldiers and police in the past few days, and thousands have been arrested.
As Mr Gambari flew towards Burma from an overnight in Singapore, the junta planned to fly him almost immediately to Naypyidaw, the generals' isolated new capital, hacked out of the jungle 240 miles north of Rangoon. Western diplomats are pressing for him to spend at least one night in the biggest city, and former capital, Rangoon, where Ms Suu Kyi lives under house arrest.
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The absolute success in Facist ruled gun control countries Take the guns away from the populace and walla, free harvest, steal , plunder and no one can do anything. Congratulations to gun control advocates.
Sam, penang, malaysia
Handreds of live and blood have been shed. Could your efforts of good offices not match these precious lives and blood by pressuring the brutal generals to negotiate or if not so, why cannot you just walk out from them just for displaying the anger from around the world? Thousands of people imprisoned protesters as well as all the people of burma are highly expecting from your visit and watching closing on you.
Please help!!!
naing, singapore,
If the UN Envoy Gambari - be still a 'feeble negotiator' what with the an unequivocal international shocked outburst and angered calls for the Junta to think afresh and notindulge in getting high handed with unarmed protestors including the monks... He should immediately be replaced forthwith with a more action-oriented diplomat. The grave situatoon warrants it.
Vedapushpa
India
Vedapushpa, Bangalore, India/State
UN has to take a tougher stand. Mr Gambari has the be the strong messenger with unwavering message. If he is not an effective negotiator, get someone else. I agree with the posting of Lianne. Even layman like me with no negotiation or diplomatic skill can see this. Why can't the great world leaders and career diplomats in UN realize this?? Time for lip service is over. I am tired to hearing "The world is watching". We are watching all right; watching Burma sink further into the pit of hell and doing nothing about it.
Aye, U.S.A.
Aye, Hannibal, USA
I do agree with Ron,Bedford.Yes,Burmese generals deserve it.That is the only solution to solve Burmese problems.They shamelessly kill the people,they should be killed in the same way to stop more bloodshed in Burma.
Another thing is if that UN representative's that weak,ask him to serve Than Shwe cos he likes weak and brainless people around him.Tell him he's under special mission,not visiting Than Shwe to take bribe from him(U never know what Generals r offering him)
Burmese citizens, Yangon, Burma
UN is once again useless as usual. Here is one chance they have to saver their reputation and do something to save millions of people fate, and what did they do, they sent "one" guy who has no balls. Junta have already showed several times what they are capable of toward their own people. Time for the diplomacy has already passed, now it's time for the action which UN will do nothing about. How much proofs do they need to determine that this is not the good government for Burma? The lives of 47 millions people who live there fate is in this man's hand and if things go bad, UN have blood on their hand.
Sad for Burma, Lincolnshire, IL, USA
Sanctions and diplomatic straegy do little to junta. Burmese people need its own soldiers or foreign forces to overcome this regime.
Aung, Newcastle,
All Burmese know that we can't "talk" to junta. "Diplomat" is a joke to junta. We must FIGHT back; but what we got is only "bricks" to fight with guns.
All the blood shed is now in vain; all the news will soon fade away. People will finally lose their interest like 1988 uprise. We people have to suffer longer; preparing for blood shed again and again; generation after generation;
But will never ever give up!
Thida, Newcastle,
Last time mr. Gambari came to Burma and met with Ms. Su Kyi. He made a short comment that Junta were looking forward to Democracy and had improvement.
If so, how can this situation be happening.
What is his mission this time again?
I think he will go to Visit Mosque and went back to UN.
Saying "Well well well , everything is fine. General is so friendly. yangon, the whole city is quiet.""
PS. Whenever he left, the situation become worse and worse. I think this time also the lost of our life will be waste agaain.
LinLaungLwin, Singapore,
If this Mr. Gambari, the UN Secretary General's Special Representative on Burma is already considered weak when it comes to negotiating with the detestable Junta, why does he remain the UN's choosen representative? A nations's future free from oppression and terror rides on the back of this one person. If he's incompetent - replace him!
Surely the fact that he is already barred from meeting Aung San Suu Kyi, should mean aborting the meeting alltogether with repercussions for the Junta with immediate effect. Else all this loss of life and injuries, the desegration of the monastries and the courage of the monks and ordinary people will, once again, have been wasted by giving the Junta the impression they can do as they like.
Maybe there is not an awful lot we can do but how about small gestures. For instance, hold a meeting with all broadsheet and tabloid newspapers and resolve to not advertise any holidays to China - it won't be a huge loss of revenue but may pressurise China
Lianne, Warminster, UK
The generals have prepared for this uprising and even built a new capital away from Rangoon. How about a few cruise missiles to flatten it preferably while they are all there in bed! I don't think there would be much of a backlash from other countries. Problem solved.
Ron, Bedford, U.K.
We should boycott Chinese goods now and the OLYMPICS later. Stop talking and act. Do something positive now to make the Chinese stop supporting hatred and killing.
sara, wiltshire,
It seems clear that China holds the key to resolution of this. Unfortunately, China's hands are by no means clean and, with its own dire record on human rights, they are, evidently, much more concerned with maintaining their own trade and political connections with Burma than with going to the assistance of a few thousand irritating demonstrators.
Their weak point is also their prime showpiece - the Olympic games. An EU boycott of the games, unless China agrees to put pressure on their miserable friends in Myanmar, would hit them where it hurts and would send an unmistakeable message that big players on the international scene are expected to subscribe to the values of their trading partners. The publicity would also show the Chinese people that human rights really are an issue for the west and that failure to live up to civilised standards will cost them friends and trade
John, Lisbon, Portugal
The UN are a toothless entity. Much as I despise George Bush I would put more faith in him than the UN or Gordon Brown who is great on rhetoric but short on any action! Time to crush the generals and save the Burmese people from further torture and starvation.
jennie s, Atyrau, Kazaksthan
Is Mr. Gambari being played by the junta? Do we need a new massacre like in East Timor in order to have UN step up properly? Why should those people die in vain? Are they just going to keep the monks closed in the monestaries forever? They are supposed to receive food donations but since no one can approach, will they starve? And the US and EU are just going to watch...
Barbara, Brussels,
If Gambari & UN fails this time it would mean that the bloodshed is in vain & wasted. Not only that more innocent people will be doomed as the Junta will secretly & cruelly be suppressed. More blood will be spilled quietly for sure. I know....cause I used to live there for more than a decade.
Grande, Singapore,
If ever 'pre-emptive' military strategies are appropriate, it's now, in Burma. Why is it that 'pre-emptive' interventions are proposed in Iraq and Iran without much public consternation but when it comes to human crises like Rwanda, Sudan and Burma no intervention whatsoever is proposed?
Samuel Waumsley, Cape Town,
The whole world are known who is fare, all the evidances can be prove inhumanity by junta are sprading the whole world. Our country people are staying with fear. Their lifes are struggling every day. So.. the world what are you going to do? We pray for Mr. Gambari, he will not cheat by junta.
Daniel , Singapore, Singapore