Making education compulsory to the age of 18 will lead to alienation and disaffection of large sections of young people, a leading academic claims.

Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham, argues that many of those who leave school at 16 with few or no qualifications will have opted out of formal education long before then by playing truant.

That there are already 68,000 persistent absentees aged 16 on school rolls suggests that the sanctions used to enforce compulsory schooling below the age of 16 are spectacularly ineffective, he said. “It is more likely that the imposition [of compulsory education or training after 16] will lead to further alienation and disaffection,” he said.

If the Government were serious about persuading 16-year-olds to remain in education, it should replace the “conveyor belt of failure with one of achievement” providing learning and training that would appeal to the young, he added. And he argues in an essay featured in Staying the Course: Changes to the Participation Age and Qualifications, published today by the Social Market Foundation, that “time must be spent willingly and wisely” and that the qualification obtained must be worth something. He says that while what could be achieved with A levels was clear, the same was not true of other, supposedly vocational qualifications. He noted that the rapid expansion of the university sector had given rise to some “eyebrow-raising degrees, such as surfing”.

The collection of essays is edited by Conor Ryan, a former adviser to Tony Blair and David Blunkett. He said: “The participation age will become a cause for resentment rather than an opportunity to succeed unless young people have the right advice, incentives and guidance.”

In another essay, Sir Michael Barber, a former government adviser, argues that raising the school leaving age represents “an important symbolic step; an unambiguous statement of intent”.

He added that the prospects for individuals who drop out of education at 16 were dismal.

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