John O'Leary
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A record number of students will be celebrating grades that will ensure a university place. But for perhaps 200,000 hopefuls, there will be yet more anxiety. The good news for most people in this often forgotten group is that the agony should soon be over. Many of them will be awarded places in the next few days.
Last year, about 50,000 people eventually secured their first or second choice of university without recourse to the clearing process, which offers another chance to those who missed their grades.
Clearing itself, which starts today, delivered the goods for an additional 38,000 students last summer, most of whom had their place confirmed within a fortnight of results day. In other words, a clear majority of those with the basic qualifications got into higher education, unless they chose not to pursue their application. The same will be true this year, although the numbers are a little less predictable than usual. There are 9 per cent more applicants but, because each one was allowed only five choices, rather than the traditional six, there have been 9 per cent fewer applications.
Whenever such a switch takes place, university admissions staff have to make an educated guess about how to pitch their offers to get the right number of students. It would not be surprising if they erred on the side of caution and left more applicants to rely on clearing this year.
Anthony McClaran, chief executive of the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (Ucas), is confident that this will not be the case because few applicants accepted offers from their sixth choice of institution. But, if it does happen, the modern clearing process should cope. The numbers using the service have been rising steadily in recent years, while the system has speeded up.
Indeed, growing numbers of applicants have been going into clearing voluntarily after rejecting their insurance offer (applicants have to narrow their original choice of five to two). They see what they regard as a better alternative in the lists published by universities and on the Ucas website (www.ucas.com ). As a result, nearly 10 per cent of all those starting full-time degrees now find their place through clearing.
Nor is clearing restricted to unpopular subjects or the less prestigious universities. In each of the past three years, the subject filling the largest number of places in clearing has been law - a degree generally considered to be among the most desirable in higher education. Last summer, 1,700 law students (more than 10 per cent of the total) entered by this route.
Business and management, computing, psychology and design were other areas that took more than a thousand students through clearing. All are among the most popular subjects for applicants, where there is stiff competition for places.
Some smaller subjects would struggle to survive at undergraduate level without an annual injection of talent from clearing. In metallurgy, for example, more than half of last year's entrants found their places this way.
Of course, the 1,700 law undergraduates who entered through clearing last year did not go to Cambridge or the London School of Economics. Most went to new universities or colleges of higher education. But only a handful of institutions will be absent entirely from clearing.
The 61 universities profiled on pages 19-26 declared the highest proportion of places filled through clearing in 2006 and they include several from the top 40 in The Times Good University Guide. Some universities refuse to divulge the number of places that they fill from clearing, but Southampton, from the guide's top 20, admits to 10 per cent. Others fill 30 or even 40 per cent of places this way.
Such is the speed of the modern clearing system that the most desirable places are likely to be taken within a few days. Many of the rest will never be filled because supply outstrips demand in those subjects, but it is one of the curiosities of the process that the vacancy lists never seem to get any smaller, although thousands of places have been taken. Courses remain listed in the vain hope of attracting one last outstanding applicant, when they are effectively closed to others.
Applicants need a clear and realistic idea of their likely targets. The biggest danger in clearing is rushing into a course or institution that then fails to meet expectations. Research suggests a higher drop-out rate among those who enter through clearing, often because the student has opted for a different subject and at a hastily chosen university.
Speed is important in clearing, but the normal rules of decision-making still apply. Consult teachers, glean what information you can from The Times and media guides, visit the campus and department if possible, and scrutinise the syllabus of any prospective course to ensure that it is within your capabilities and will keep you interested for three years or more.
John O'Leary is Editor of The Times Good University Guide
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