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Unpublished data obtained by The Sunday Times from the Universities and Colleges Admissions Services (Ucas) shows an aggregate 5% fall in applications from all British sixth-formers.
The figures will fuel the fears of Labour MPs who had opposed the imposition of £3,000 top-up fees from autumn this year, arguing that they would put off poorer applicants.
However, there is a full refund on fees for students whose parents have a household income of £17,500 or less. It is paid in the form of an annual maintenance grant, with £2,700 from central government and £300 from the university. A tapered subsidy is paid to households with an upper limit of £37,400 income per year.
By the middle of last month the number of applications from British sixth-formers to English universities was down by about 15,000 compared with the same time a year ago. Scottish and Welsh universities will not be introducing the £3,000 top-up fee.
The decrease is significant because student numbers would have risen this year had top-up fees not been introduced. There are more 18-year-olds than a year ago, as well as a larger number who have obtained two A-levels, the requirement for higher education.
Universities across the country have reported falls in the number of applicants. Nottingham, a member of the Russell Group of 21 leading universities, has seen a drop of 13%. Leeds, Sheffield and Southampton were all down by about 6% to 8%. At Liverpool applications were down by 5%.
Drummond Bone, Liverpool’s vice-chancellor and president of Universities UK, said: “There is no doubt that what we are seeing is a consequence of the change in the fee structure. However, in Australia applications dropped when fees were first introduced, but they recovered subsequently.”
Universities such as Liverpool, which enjoy eight or nine applications for every place, will not be affected by the fall in numbers. But some newer universities, with weaker academic reputations, have yet to disclose the numbers of prospective students applying and could face significant financial problems.
One university vice-chancellor, who did not wish to be identified, said: “We know there are five or six universities which the government’s funding council is holding together. If they don’t make their target (for the number of students) they could face dire consequences.
“If leading universities are seeing a drop, it is entirely possible that others are facing a catastrophic decline. There must be finance directors who are heading for the nearest high bridge.”
Despite the overall fall in the numbers of teenagers applying for places, some universities have reported an increase in applications. Queen Mary, part of London University, has seen numbers rise by 10%. University College and King’s College, in London, and York University have all seen increases.
Applicants appear to be opting for degree courses which they expect will improve their chances of a job when they graduate. At the University of Birmingham, where applications are down by 5%, the number wanting to study business degrees has doubled. Others report increases in applicants for maths and physics degrees.
However, there is concern that applicants could be choosing the wrong courses. One university registrar said: “There could be a misunderstanding among applicants about which degrees are likely to provide you with a good career.
“If students don’t go for the subject that really interests them they could end up wasting their potential.”
The deadline for applications is not until January 15, but about 80% of forms from sixth-formers will have been processed before Christmas.
Scotland, which has not introduced top-up fees, is enjoying an increase in applications, with figures for the University of St Andrews in Fife up 11% year-on-year. It charges fees of £1,700 per year to applicants from England.
Gordon Brown, the chancellor, had disagreed with the prime minister over top-up fees, dismissing the new fees as “ridiculous and elitist” at a private lunch in 2002.
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