WITH ONE carefully-worded Government statement, the list of destinations where British holidaymakers now fear to tread grew a little longer yesterday. After the terrorist attacks in Bali, the Foreign Office warned that Thailand, and especially the exotic island of Phuket, where 600,000 Britons travel each year, were potential targets of another atrocity.

It dealt a glancing blow to the quick-fix, carefree holiday culture that for decades we have taken for granted. From Washington to Moscow, Bali to North Africa, virtually nowhere in the world seems safe from some kind of terror campaign.

It is impossible to predict where the extremists will strike next, or whether the target will be hard or soft. There is no longer such a thing as an “immune” country, merely whether they are low, medium or high risk. David Capitanchik, a terrorism expert at Robert Gordon’s University in Aberdeen, identifies North African countries such as Morocco and Tunisia, Pakistan, and the Kashmir region of India as areas where Westerners are at greatest risk. He says it does not necessarily follow that the countries where most fundamentalists are active are where the greatest danger lies.

“I cannot think of a country where you are guaranteed to be safe,” he says. “We are vulnerable right here in Britain. It would not take much for a suicide bomber to walk into Selfridges. The question is what kind of measures each country has taken to make itself less vulnerable.”

He says that Egypt, for example, whose tourist industry was decimated when 58 holidaymakers were massacred at Luxor five years ago, was only medium risk, having made huge strides in restraining Islamic terrorists. Morocco is still considered high risk, as is Tunisia, where there is a security clampdown to preserve the tourism industry on which it depends so much.

Surprise countries to emerge on the risk list include Cyprus, because of its close proximity to the Middle East, and Dubai, given its popularity with rich westerners. The Seychelles and Mauritius might also be considered “easy” Bali-style targets although Mauritius, being an island state, may be slightly safer.

Capitanchick says that as well as being associated with the western club scene, Cyprus is also a centre for offshore companies. “It is something of a safe haven for terror groups in the Middle East,” he says. “It is only a few hours by boat from Israel, the Lebanon and Tunisia. We have also still got British bases there.”

Elsewhere in South-East Asia, expatriates are already steering clear of holiday areas not included in Foreign Office warnings. The island of Bintan, a 45-minute ferry ride from Singapore and a favourite weekend retreat, has seen a drop in visitors. Langkawi island off the north-west Malaysian coast and the smaller island of Tioman north of Singapore are also considered potentially risky since the Bali bombing. “People are even thinking twice about shopping trips to Kuala Lumpur,” one British banker in Singapore said yesterday.

Pakistan remains a particularly high risk, mainly because it is feared that terrorists have infiltrated army and security services. Britain has been made more vulnerable by the fact that we have a dozen fundamentalists currently in prison. But Capitanchick adds: “Personally I don’t think you should think about these things. The threat of ETA has been around for years but it hasn’t stopped people going to Spain. And look at Greece with the 17 November group.”

One area which looks set to benefit from the worldwide terror campaign is South America and the Caribbean, since it has no obvious al-Quaeda links. Over the winter, bookings to Cuba are predicted to rise by 20 per cent.

Times Online

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