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Alarm about a flu pandemic has been restarted by clear evidence that bird flu, which is rife in the Far East, can be transmitted person to person.
This could be one of the first steps in the evolution of the H5N1 strain of avian flu into a deadly pandemic strain that could infect hundreds of millions of people.
The new evidence involves a 52-year-old man who caught the disease from his 24-year-old son, who himself seems to have picked it up at a poultry market. The son died, while his father narrowly survived.
A team of doctors led by Yu Wang, of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, report in The Lancet online that the two cases of avian flu were detected in the family from Nanjing, in Jiangsu Province, in December last year.
The man of 24, a salesman, developed fever, chills, headache, a sore throat and a cough. He was treated with antibiotics but his condition worsened and he was admitted to hospital, where he died five days later.
Just before he died, tests showed that he was infected by H5N1 avian flu virus. His father, a retired engineer, lived six miles away. When his son fell ill he went to see him and helped to look after him in hospital for two days.
The father fell ill a week later but survived after being treated with antiviral drugs and blood plasma from a woman who had been deliberately infected with inactive H5N1 in a clinical trial. He spent 22 days in hospital.
Samples of H5N1 virus taken from the father and son were genetically identical, save for one small change. Flu virus mutates rapidly, so the fact that these two samples were so nearly identical is strong evidence of direct infection from son to father.
Jeremy Farrar and colleagues from the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Vietnam said in The Lancet: “If we continue to experience widespread, uncontrolled outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry, the appearance of strains well-adapted to human beings might be just a matter of time.”
A further 100 close contacts of the father and son were identified and followed up for ten days. Eight had been exposed to both men, but none developed H5N1 flu. The team concluded that the son passed the infection to his father, probably at the hospital. The son had gone to the poultry market six days before falling ill.
It is possible that his father caught the disease independently, when he visited another market to buy vegetables. There were poultry being slaughtered there, but the father said that he did not go anywhere near them.
So the odds are strongly that he caught avian flu from his son. Other cases of suspected person-to-person transmission have also been between blood relations, suggesting that there may be a genetic susceptibility to H5N1 infection, the authors said.
Wendy Barclay, Chair in Influenza Virology at Imperial College London, said: “Although it is possible that the father did catch H5N1 influenza from his son, there is no virological evidence to support the idea that this strain of H5N1 virus has acquired mutations that allow it to pass readily from one person to another.”
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This is disturbing news. However, birds containing diseases and transmitting them to people, is not new. The media focuses on bird flu and west nile, ignoring the 60+ other viruses that are found predominantly in bird droppings. if poultry markets were to maintain cleaner standards and cities, businesses, and home owners were to install bird deterrents, we could avoid a pandemic. human to human transmission is not possible if nobody catches the disease to begin with.
kathleen, Chicago, usa/illinois
I am not a religious person either (or a farmer or a greedy corporate), but to link Avian Flu, which, don't forget, is a virus that affects wild birds as well and is an ever present in the bird population, with the way in which poultry is farmed in the West, is patently wrong.
The vast majority of cases that have occured over the past few years have been in countries where culturally it is acceptable to work and live with your livestock. The only time most of us ever come into contact with a chicken is when it's on a shelf in a supermarket.
Historically, the largest major flu pandemic occured in 1918 and it is widely accepted that this began in the troop camps set up in France during WW1 and coincidentally, these men also worked and lived with their poultry and livestock.
The conditions for the onset of a pandemic are very similar, but to blame our poultry industry is unfair and irresponsible.
By the way, why didn't the Lord prohibit the keeping of birds as well?
Lee, London, UK
We need to open our agricultural produce markets now to poorer countries and stop wasting billions on war but plough them into raising hygene standards in developing countries to fight disease where it is prevalent right now.
Richard, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
It's only a matter of time before we see a pandemic. These people live amongst pigs and geese, the two vectors of flu transmission. There was a reason that the Lord prohibited the keeping of pigs.
Mike Jefferson, Washington, D.C.,
Whilst Flue Pandemics are to some extent 'cyclical' and therefore an inevitable challenge we must face at some time or other, humankind have certainly made matters worse (with Avian Flu) by our in-humane methods of intensive Poultry farming.
I am not a Religious person, but we do "reap what we sow".
Look at the way much of our Poultry is Battery-farmed, and try and convince yourself that we are not living off the misery, dirt and disease that are created by farmers or greedy corporations.
John Robinson, Thetford, UK
As a foreigner living in West Bengal, it's a little scary. The latest outbreak here was woefully mismanaged by the state government's failure to educate the villagers whose only livelihoods are raising chickens. India is a third world country, and this is not the first time, or the last, that it has failed at disaster management. I can't believe that there is a conspiracy theory as it seems more likely that the lack of adequate emergency planning is the cause.
Colleen, Kolkata , India
Just for your info... The plague is bacterial
Allan, Hd, Germany
Pre-warned is pre-armed.
I hope.
Joey, Philadelphia, Pa USA
Balance is returning to Earth after 66 years of antibiotics and less than that with antivirals.
Joe Laman, ithaca, usa
here we go...
JPL, SD, CA
Besides WMD, viruses are the most deadly infectious agents that may destroy millions and millions of people. Anyone remember the plague?
Olga, Pittsburgh, USA/PA
This is to do with a depopulation agenda. The elite want to reduce the world population by billions and have created bioweapons for that purpose. See Endgame by Alex Jones at Google Video - it provides plenty of undeniable evidence to show that this is the case.
Clare Swinney, Whangarei, NZ
Earth balancing is returning as it has done throughout history. The real question is "are we ready for it".. I'm not optimistic..
Mike, Janesville, WI
This is scary, I hope they've done thier best to create wide swaths of the a vaccine / antivirals
Zack, Minneapolis, MN,
Humans have had a very temporary reprieve from microbes. Only about 66 years since the first antibiotic. Earth balance may be returning.
Joe Laman, syracuse,, usa
Well, now we have it - the proof that is can be transmitted between humans. I believe the world should be prepared for the worst, and NOW.
Dan , Shanghai, China