“I’m not going to stay at home, freaking out about the flu with a stupid mask on my face,” Bernardo de la Garza, 32, declared as he sipped an espresso outside an empty café in the wealthy Polanco district of Mexico City yesterday.

His was a rare voice of defiance — as was clear from the almost total silence around him.

Greater Mexico City, usually a chaotic, traffic-snarled megalopolis of 22 million Capitalinos, is at a virtual standstill in response to the outbreak of swine flu that is so far thought to have killed 149 Mexicans, with the number rising. Although only 20 of the deaths have been confirmed by laboratory tests as being a result of swine flu, few expect a different explanation for the others, given the victims’ profile of being otherwise healthy adults aged between 20 and 50.

In addition to the deaths, another 2,000 Mexicans have checked themselves into hospitals with cases of “grave pneumonia”, José Córdova, the Health Minister, said at a televised press conference that almost certainly beat many of the country’s telenovelas for ratings yesterday.

The effect of the outbreak on the sprawling and dysfunctional capital has bordered on the apocalyptic — an effect only heightened by the earthquake that struck yesterday in the southern state of Guerrero. As of yesterday lunchtime, damage was thought to be limited.

Capitalinos — or Chilangos, as the residents often call themselves (the term can also be derogatory) — are used to a certain amount of drama. Crime in Mexico City is appalling even on a good day. The traffic is often fatal. And then there is the continual problem of the sinking lakebed upon which the city is built.

The past few days have been unsettling even by those standards. Virtually everyone seems to be wearing surgical masks and/or plastic gloves. Airport terminals are deserted. Schools and government offices are closed and will remain so until at least early May, creating a childcare crisis for millions of working parents.

All but a fraction of economic activity has ceased; at least one big hotel in the city was moving what few guests remained into rooms on the same floor yesterday so that the rest of the property could be shut down.

The economic misery is likely to worsen, especially now that Androulla Vassiliou, the EU’s Health Commissioner, has urged Europeans to postpone non-essential travel to affected parts of Mexico and the US.

Mexico’s currency, the peso, and its stock market index, the IPC, plunged yesterday in response.

Fearing a collapse of its $13 billion-a-year tourism industry, the Ministry of Tourism released a statement of its own. “Tourism to Mexico is flowing as normal and, as of now, there are no restrictions or travel alerts from any foreign country,” it said. “This was confirmed by the World Health Organisation after eliminating the possibility of quarantine.”

The economic problems go beyond travel and tourism. Several countries, including China, have banned imports of live pigs and pork products from Mexico and parts of the US, even though farming trade groups maintain that it is impossible to catch the virus from properly cooked meat. The trade groups also note that none of the victims is thought to have had any contact with livestock.

There have been some temporary benefits from the disruption to Mexico’s capital. Over recent days the crime rate has dropped almost to zero as robbers, muggers, and kidnappers stay at home. “Not even the criminals are working,” Serafín Rodríguez, an officer with the capital’s PGR police force, said. “There are no robberies, no kidnappings, no nothing. You can walk pretty much anywhere right now, I’ve never seen anything like it — it’s like a national holiday.”

For those like Mr de la Garza who dare to venture outside, there are other benefits: pollution has eased, the crowds of protesters who often worsen the gridlock are gone and car journeys can be measured in minutes, not hours. “The police don’t even pull you over any more,” Mr de la Garza said, adding that he pays fines and bribes on a daily basis. “They’re too worried about getting flu.”

He acknowledged, though, that he was able to feel more relaxed about swine flu because he earned good money as a lawyer. “If you have a certain economic status you can go to a private hospital where they have drugs and you’ll get through it,” he said. “But if the disease continues to spread through the indigenous populations in the south and the north, there won’t be enough drugs or hospitals.”

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