A simple blood test that can predict whether IVF is likely to work for infertile women has become a realistic possibility as a result of new research.

A set of biological markers in women’s blood that are linked to the success of fertility treatment has been identified by scientists in Ireland.

They are now seeking to develop a predictive test. Such a test could be taken before a couple decides whether to start IVF or to try again after failed cycles, so that those with a poor prognosis could be spared gruelling and expensive treatment that is unlikely to lead to a pregnancy.

While fertility doctors already advise patients about their prospects on the basis of age, hormone levels and lifestyle factors such as obesity and smoking, these are blunt tools that are not always reliable.

Cathy Allen, of the Rotunda Hospital in Dublin, who led the research, said she hoped that it would lead to improved prognostic tests with which to advise patients — especially those for whom IVF is unlikely to work.

“It’s going to be a while before we have a clinical test but my gut feeling is it will be useful for identifying the unfavourable profile — those who won’t get pregnant,” she said.

In the study, which was presented yesterday at the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology conference in Amsterdam, Dr Allen analysed the way in which hundreds of genes are switched on and off in the body.

She measured levels of messenger RNA — the signalling chemical released by genes when they are switched on and making protein — in the blood of women before and after they had IVF. The results were correlated with whether the women became pregnant or failed to conceive.

“There does seem to be a particular signature that goes along with success,” Dr Allen said.

“When you compared patients who were just about to undergo IVF and looked at gene expression profiles they fell into two very distinct groups — one group who would become pregnant and one group who wouldn’t become pregnant.

“This work has generated a unique profile for IVF success and failure.”

The study involved three subfertile women who conceived naturally, five who conceived via IVF and three who failed to conceive.

Dr Allen said that the findings would have to be repeated in larger samples before any test could be developed.“If you’ve been through one, two, three cycles of IVF without success, it is really difficult to decide whether they should go again,” she said. “In the first instance, it could come in for people with these difficult decisions to make, it may be useful to them to help them to decide.”

The test costs about £1,500 to conduct, but the cost of the technology required is falling.

A separate team of scientists has developed a questionnaire that women can use to judge whether they are likely to have fertility problems and should change their lifestyles to improve their chances of pregnancy.

The FertiSTAT test, designed by Jacky Boivin and Laura Bunting, of Cardiff University, asks 20 questions about menstrual cycles and reproductive health, lifestyle factors, age and the length of time for which they have been trying for a baby.

The results would indicate potential problems to women who might not know which factors were known to affect the chances of pregnancy, Dr Boivin said.

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