The NHS has been told to plan for a worst-case scenario of 65,000 swine flu deaths this year. The news came as the number of people to die after contracting the virus rose sharply.

Health officials said that 29 people had now died — up from 17 confirmed deaths on Monday. There were unconfirmed reports that the new cases included a young boy from Kent.

Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, said that it was not yet known whether the most recent victims had underlying health problems. In all, 26 people have died in England and 3 in Scotland, including an ill baby in London and a tourist with significant medical problems who died in hospital in Inverness. The results of a post-mortem on Chloe Buckley, 6, who died last week, are not yet known.

About 55,000 people reported flu symptoms last week. The number of patients in hospital with swine flu has doubled to 652, of whom 53 are in intensive care. Visits to GPs and calls to NHS Direct have risen sharply.

The surge prompted officials to announce the launch next week of the National Pandemic Flu Service, as disclosed yesterday in The Times.

The advice to prepare for 65,000 deaths is based on 30 per cent of the population falling ill. Children under 14 are being hit hardest and the NHS was told to plan for a worst-case scenario of up to half of all children being infected during a first pandemic wave.

President Obama has allocated $1.8 billion to fight the pandemic. The money will buy vaccine ingredients, allow vaccines to be approved quickly and help US health officials to plan for immunisation campaigns.

Sir Liam said there was now “exceptional influenza activity” across most of the country apart from Yorkshire and the Humber. Tower Hamlets in East London has the highest proportion of GP visits, with 759 consultations about flu-like illness per 100,000 of the population. Other boroughs badly affected include Hackney, Islington and Lewisham. “Some of these will have the worried well among them,” Sir Liam said.

Cherie Blair is among those with the virus. The wife of the former Prime Minister has had to pull out of a number of public engagements.

The planning model given to the NHS shows that deaths could range from 19,000 to 65,000 if 30 per cent of the population fell ill. In the pandemics of 1957-58 and 1968-70, between 25 and 30 per cent were infected. In the former, 33,000 people died; in the latter it was a few thousand fewer.

The model says that the NHS should prepare for up to 12 per cent of the workforce to be off sick. However, it emphasises that its figures are not a prediction but based on a “reasonable worst-case scenario for planning purposes”. It adds that the spread of the virus might slow during the summer holidays, peaking in October after children go back to school.

in London. Officials confirmed four of the cases yesterday, all with underlying health problems. They included a baby, a woman of 39 and a man of 70.

Some years there can be as many as 20,000 extra deaths in the winter that are linked with influenza.

Sir Liam said that the aim of the new flu service was to alleviate pressure on hospitals and GP services in England so that they could concentrate on those most seriously ill. The Government was trusting the public not to abuse the service, he added.

People will obtain a diagnosis over the telephone or by completing an internet questionnaire. They will then be given a reference number so that a “flu friend” can pick up the antiviral drug from a depot. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales have not yet set up such a service but may do so.

The Health Protection Agency estimates that there were 55,000 new cases in England and that up to 85,000 people could now be affected.

The Department of Health defended its preparations amid accusations that it was providing conflicting advice. A health trust memo passed to The Times had said that guidance was “muddled and contradictory”.

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