There are many monthly measures of house prices vying for our attention. Nationwide and Halifax are probably noticed most, partly because they have been running longest. Even so, the oldest consistent monthly series, from the Halifax, has been around only since 1983.

By statistical standards, most house-price measures are young, but they still tell us something useful. Take the Rightmove monthly index, which records asking prices of properties new to the market, and is described by its publishers as the leading house-price indicator.

So, what is it telling us? That asking prices have been through a volatile period in the past six months. This is partly due to the effect of the credit crisis, but mainly, it seems, because of the introduction of home information packs (Hips) last year. Because they were brought in gradually, they wreaked havoc on the Rightmove index by distorting the balance of new properties coming onto the market on a month-to-month basis.

The problem started in September, when the index dropped by 2.6%, immediately followed by a 2.7% rise in October. Prices were down by 0.7% in November, a dramatic 3.2% in December and 0.8% in January. Yet the most recent two readings have been up, by a strong 3.2% in February and by 0.8% this month.

Where does that leave us? If we take July as the month before the credit crisis and the distortion caused by Hips, asking prices this month are roughly the same as they were then. And if Rightmove really is a leading indicator, it suggests that prices generally should be picking up in the next few months.

It is not quite as simple as that, however. The Rightmove figures were seized on with glee by housing-market bears last year, but this year’s numbers provide only limited succour for the bulls. For a start, there is normally a seasonal uplift in prices at this time of year – the figures are not seasonally adjusted. In addition, Rightmove says it has detected what it thinks is a curious bit of market psychology: vendors pitch their own selling price high while simultaneously believing that the house they want to buy can be theirs cheaply.

As Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, says: “Most sellers coming to the market seem to be ignoring the increased competition from other unsold properties and the challenge buyers now face in obtaining a mortgage. As many sellers are likely to be buyers themselves, they seem to be trying to bank a higher figure for their home, but want a bargain when they buy. It’s human nature, but in the current market, sellers should price below their competition to achieve more interest now and avoid a larger price drop later in the year.”

This is an important caveat – asking prices and achieved prices are very different – but the Rightmove survey is an antidote to some of the excessive gloom that is around. It also shows that properties are spending less time on the market – and those that are realistically priced even less than most.

home.economics@sunday-times.co.uk

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