Thomas Catàn in Madrid and Joanna Bale
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Thousands of British homeowners in Spain were on edge yesterday after billions of pounds were wiped off the value of Spanish property developers.
After a hammering on Tuesday, shares in many construction companies rebounded yesterday. But analysts are divided on whether the tremors mark an isolated stock market event or the end of Spain’s decade-long property boom.
For Britons, who have collectively invested several billion pounds on the Spanish Costas, the stakes are high: many face steep losses if house prices fall. There are also worries that those who have bought into future development could be left high and dry.
The Spanish Economy Minister sought to reassure investors that the wobble in financial markets was unconnected with the strength of the real economy. Miguel Ángel Fernández Ordóñez, Governor of the Bank of Spain, also played down fears of an imminent property crash, pointing to continued mortgage loan growth.
Many British families are hoping he is right. Up to a million are thought to live in Spain for at least part of the year. Hundreds of thousands have bought homes on the coasts and many more have indirectly invested capital in the sector. Barclays estimates that Britons own more than 90,000 second homes in Spain.
Andrew Lupton, owner of Stacks Relocation Spain, which helps people moving there permanently, said: “Everyone’s asking ‘has the bubble burst?’, but, in my opinion, it burst some time ago. The price crash started last year and is an ongoing process. There is an oversupply of apartments in popular coastal areas so the owners of these properties will suffer.”
Mark Stucklin, of the Spanish Property Insight website, said: “Share prices in property companies have dropped. It is not a housing market crash. However, share pricing tells you something about the outlook for the housing market. After a ten-year boom, investors are nervous due to increasing interest rates and slower demand.People who bought ten years ago will still make a good profit. Only those who bought recently are likely to get hurt. This is also a good opportunity to buy.”
For years, economic Cassandras have been warning that Spain’s soaraway property market is destined for a fall. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development believes that Spanish property prices are 30 per cent overvalued, and that a sudden rise in interest rates could trigger an “abrupt adjustment in which prices would plunge”.
But prices have continued to rise, as sun-starved Northern Europeans have rushed to buy a piece of the Spanish coast. Awash with cheap credit, Spaniards have also poured billions into the market in recent years.
This week, however, the day of reckoning appeared to come closer when investors abruptly lost faith in construction stocks, which have driven the Spanish stock market to record highs in recent years.
The immediate trigger was a 60 per cent drop in the value of Astroc Mediterraneo, a Valencian developer whose shares had soared tenfold in less than a year. The plunge in Astroc’s value caused jitters in the whole market, with much larger construction companies like ACS, Ferrovial and Acciona all taking a hit.
The crisis of confidence has focused attention on the fragile foundations underpinning the Spanish property boom. As in Britain, house prices have tripled in a decade. Unlike Britain, Spain has responded by going on an unprecedented building spree: more than three million houses have been built in the past four years, half of them on the coast. The result is that there is now a glut of housing in many parts of the country. Some 800,000 licences for new housing starts are being issued every year, twice as many as France or Germany and substantially more than the 500,000 or so that are thought to be needed.
House prices have not yet fallen, but the rise of 7.2 percent in the first quarter is the slowest in 8 years, down from a high of 18.5 percent in the final quarter of 2003. Estate agents report that prices are now falling in some regions.
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The only problem with the spanish property market are the english people. Stay there please. we don t need you. Please help us coming back again
Manuel, Girona, España
We have an overseas property centre in Kent and have been selling in Spain for over 8 years. Although it will be harder to persuade clients that Spain is still a good place to escape to the sun, we welcome this slowing down in the market if it ensures that Spain emerges with a clean house. Too many new constructions sites along the costas, and developers have to realise that Spain has now emerged as a resale market. So yes we welcome a slowdown if it means that Spain is putting its house in order. More of a threat is the fact that the Spanish Tourist Board need owners to have a licence to rent, but will not grant one, I feel that will rock the market more than falling house prices.
And yes some of the'nasties' from Spain have landed on the shores of Calabria Italy., and have already started some less than legal dealings there. I have an excellent UK agent in the area, has lived and worked in the area for many years, and he assures me that the 'sleazies' wont find it so easy in Italy!
MAUREEN TALBOT, SEVENOAKS KENT, UK
How many people realise that Spanish building companies like the giant Fadesa have long since moved abroad and are building in other countries like Morocco, Mexico and Eastern Europe , exporting their dubious practices with them !
lyn alexander, H emel Hempstead, UK and Morocco
Everyone has predicted a crash in the UK, has this happened on such a scale . . . . no. Will it happen . . . who knows? Is anyone scaremongering in this country? No. At the moment the Del Sol is stagnating due to the fact that the prices jumped to ridiculous amounts which people refuse to pay as they can go elsewhere and buy for half the price in places like the Costa Blanca. I have recently purchased a property through a very reputable company. Atlas International do not saturate particular areas purely for the very reason that if there's too much it will collapse on itself. The reason i bought in the Costa Blanca is that i cannot afford a property in the UK! I have spent less than £90k and own a beautiful top floor apartment, the builders cannot build over 3 storeys high. I have views of orange/lemon groves , I have a pool, solarium, amenities, beaches, golf courses etc. Atlas International did not pressure me at all. They put my interests first, unlike some other companies!!!
G. Colyer, Dorking,
The UK housing market will crash in the near future.
jim, london,
its simply supply and demand and more of our clients are buying in areas such as turkey croatia ect .
selling spain and downsizing to cheaper living areas.
we have been telling clients for four years that this was a bubble waiting to burst .
Robert J Fox, Norwich, Norfolk
Whilst there may be a slump in someareas of Spain as the press have reported horror stories from Valenecia and Marbella, other parts of Spain are booming, there are the areas that were undeveloped until recent years, such as The Region of Murcia which are now booming.
Buyers have not given up on Spain but they have given up on areas of Spain which are over built, concrete jungles. In Murcia the planning rules are very strict and will not allow building over 3 stories high unless on the La Manga Strip. They also insist that developers give a percentage of land back to the Town Hall to provide leisure areas, hospitals, schools etc for the growing community. Polaris World are one of the biggest developers in the area and all of their properties are built on golf courses, which even if you don't like golf, make a wonderful green landscape to look out on. Tips for buying in Spain, choose a location with a view, get a BANK guarrantee choose a reputable Agent -registered with FOPDAC
Gill Hughes, Birmingham, UK
You only have to drive down that eastern coast of Spain to see the madness of the developments. As you get down towards Benidorm it becomes like a futuristic horror story. It is quite scary.
Nick Wibberley, Neuvic-Entier, France
Having worked in a managerial position in Spanish off-plan property for 5 years, I can tell you that from an insiders perspective, we were aware of this situation developing for at least the last 3 years.
Most major estate agencies have quietly branched out into new countries.
Meanwhile, in Spain, there has been a collective "hush hush" approach amongst agents - discussing the problem has been taboo.
The greed of Spanish developers is legendary, many hammering UK purchasers with hidden surcharges and price increases with no tie-in to what the market has actually been doing.
Clients offered supposed "rental guarantees" have simply purchased a property with a loaded price - only finding out 2 years later that the property cannot be rented out.
It's not all bad news though - a holiday home (or permanent residence) serves its purpose very well. One property per person is a great idea, Spain after all is a lovely place.
Pity anyone who bought as a short term investment though...
Steve, Benalmadena, Spain
In my opinion the cash started last year and is sprains own fault, the country is rife with corruption and no one any longer has any faith in the government to deal with it. They have encouraged over supply in there greed to make money and collect tax. They wont sort out the land grab laws and have allowed illegal building for so long it has become the norm. The local government seems all to be bent and out for there own gain. The market will not return until Spain can be trusted.
r ellis, sidmouth, devon
"For years, economic Cassandras have been warning that Spains soaraway property market is destined for a fall."
... and in the UK too!
Michele, Richmond, UK
Spain is a market which is currently excessively overpriced compared to other parts of Mediterranean Europe .The prospect of further increases in bank interest rates in the UK, in the coming months, will lead to belt tightening in the UK , with no spare funds for spannish properties. With more and more developments available for purchase and no buyers there is only one way for prices to go and that is down. The tell tell signs in the spannish stock market this week are the real signs that the construction companies are not selling with the prospects of a fall up to 30% in property values. Together with "land grab issues "and "not so good building regulations" this latest issue will put new buyers off.
Chris Smith, Eastbourne , UK
Prices for villas on the northern Costa Blanca have been drifting lower for the last year or two. There are now some real bargains to be had. Some friends of mine have had their 3 bedroom Villa with pool in the Jalon valley for sale for 18 months, started off at 299,000 euro dropped to 279,000 euro now at 259,000 and would take an offer!
Don´t be put off Spain by these scare headlines. It´s a better place to live than the U.K.
Friedrich, Jalon, Spain
I don't think I would want to live there and be surrounded by the British in their "dream" homes with their tan worship and the drink problems.
Michael Waugh, London, UK
Well, the greediest in my view always get their come uppance first. It's little blips like this that should serve as a warning to the UK housing market. But no doubt the pundits with all the usual self-interest in the property market will continue to talk it up.
Keith, Newport, Isle of Wight, England