William Kay
Win tickets to the ATP finals
WHILE share prices are zooming up and down in irrational zigzags, investors are happily proving more resourceful than ever before at seeking out more promising prospects.
The latest confidence survey from broker TD Waterhouse shows that seasoned players think Asian markets will do best over the next 12 months – but many are not quite ready to act on their beliefs.
According to the survey, one in three tip Asia, but still prefer to buy European and US shares.
The startling point is that nearly a third have invested abroad in the past year. While that is doubtless prompted by fear of the difficult outlook in the UK, it shows that investors are prepared to diversify.
But whereas in former downturns diversification would have led to a boom in wild and wacky collectibles, foreign stock markets no longer hold the terror they once did.
People who are happy to buy books, holidays and a growing list of other items on the internet are now confident enough to build and monitor a foreign share portfolio on their computer.
Inevitably, broking firms are doing more to cater for this: Waterhouse offers live online dealing through 16 international exchanges, and it is not the only broker to do so.
Of course, mistakes will be made. I am coming round to the view that markets are wrong to jump for joy at every sign interest rates are coming down further, because senior bankers are dropping increasingly heavy hints the credit crisis is going to last longer and have a deeper impact than predicted.
Interest-rate reductions can do only so much to revive share prices, and we are getting near the end of that game. When banks stop wanting to lend, a half percent here or there on or off rates becomes irrelevant.
The fate of the US dollar is also going to play a big part, and it is worth bearing in mind that most Asian currencies are tied to the dollar. If those links are broken there will be the most enormous upheaval.
So I welcome the greater awareness of foreign stock markets, and willingness to invest in them. But don’t imagine there are any sure-fire hiding places left.
Selling illusions
LAST week’s winding-up court hearing against the British arm of Amway, the US direct-selling giant, revived the spectre of thousands of people deluding themselves that they can open the door to riches simply by signing up for a seductive-sounding scheme.
I make no comment on the Amway case, as that firm has been operating in the UK since 1973 and may have a perfectly good defence against the charges it faces. But, as with several other get-rich-quick ideas, variations on direct selling seem to hit Britain in waves every few years, after the fuss has died down on the previous controversy and memories have faded.
The current economic uncertainties are a persuasive recruiting sergeant for those seeking a source of income less vulnerable to stock-market vagaries, so it is as well to be forearmed.
These schemes can range from straightforward franchising and Tupperware party ventures to the outright illegal pyramid schemes. The last big pyramid firm, Women Empowering Women, cost families their life savings.
The basic idea is simple. Agents buy goods at a discounted price which they hope to sell for a profit. Often, people become agents simply to claim the discount with no intention of selling to others, much like belonging to a cash-and-carry warehouse.
Problems begin with incentives to bring in new agents, which can veer towards the pyramid structure if these incentives are not designed carefully. And what may start out as a means to a modest second income can be distorted out of recognition if it is accompanied by publicity suggesting that untold riches lie round the corner.
It is a good idea to regard direct-selling plans in the same light as timeshares and holiday clubs: if you go to a presentation, do not commit yourself without going away and thinking about it, whatever the threats or encouragement to sign up there and then.
Savvy teens
THE IFS School of Finance says 10,000 teenagers are studying for personal finance qualifications – and not a moment too soon, if Nationwide is to be believed. It has found that 75% of us haven’t the foggiest when it comes to working out the effect of raising or cutting our mortgage interest rate by one percentage point.
Given that sort of movement can amount to £4,000 in cash terms on a £120,000, 25-year mortgage (when you factor in the repayment of capital), people often don’t know what is happening to their outgoings until the next statement drops on the doormat. When Nationwide asked people, just under a quarter admitted they hadn’t a clue, and just over a quarter thought it would make a difference of between £500 and £2,000.
The most worrying aspect is that only one in six of those aged 18 to 24 got the £4,000 figure right, suggesting schools are still turning out innumerates.
While it is nice to know that 10,000 teenagers are making inroads, it is but a drop in the ocean when you consider there are about 6m of them in Britain.
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