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The latest art auction season reveals fascinating insights into how the rich are reacting to the credit crisis and the consequent stock-market turmoil.
While the London market has recovered well in recent weeks and people who should know are beginning to say the worst is over, saleroom action points to a high degree of disagreement and indecision about the outlook.
Counting Bonhams as well as Sotheby’s and Christie’s, and including a great range of items — from chess sets to cat’s-whisker radios along with the Warhols, Lowrys and Monets — more than £1 billion is coming under the hammer this month and next.
The auction houses are confident of raising that sort of money — of course they are, that’s their job — but it also means that many wealthy collectors such as Sir Sean Connery want to unload, and only six months after works of similar value changed hands.
Early signs are mixed. While Monet’s Le pont du chemin de fer à Argenteuil went for a record £21m last week, paintings by Picasso, Renoir, Van Gogh and Gauguin failed to sell.
The auction firms are having to put up more guarantees than usual, which means they have to buy works that have not sold. Reports suggest quite a few owners are selling to repay debt, but some big collectors reckon prices have peaked.
Eli Broad, the American property billionaire, said: “It is time for a major downward adjustment in values.”
This is almost a mirror image of the stock market. Banks seem to be sorting themselves out, though house prices are falling and mortgages have dried up. Because house moves account for so much spending, some investors fret that shares could still drop.
On a smaller scale, if you have spare cash you might find low-priced bargains at auction — often because the cash-strapped are forced to sell.
This Tuesday Bonhams is holding two sales of very affordable items. One is a classy version of a car-boot sale at its branch in Knowle, near Birmingham, where for £100 or so you might pick up a vintage camera, radio, gramophone or calculator.
In London’s Knightsbridge, the firm is selling chess games, books and memorabilia. While you might have to pay £5,000 for an 1810 Chinese ivory chess set, there is plenty for around £100 here, too.
These are fun items that are unlikely to make your fortune, but could turn a handy profit in five or ten years.
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