Claim your free 2010 double sided wall chart
An unexpected dip in inflation last month has raised hopes that interest rates in the UK could have peaked, although experts say that it is still too early for homeowners to put the champagne on ice.
The Consumer Price Index, the government’s preferred measure, fell to 1.9 per cent in July, a sharp drop from June’s level of 2.4 per cent and well below analysts’ forecasts of 2.3 per cent. This is the first time that inflation has tumbled below the Bank of England's 2 per cent target in more than a year, sparking speculation that another rate hike won’t be needed.
Falling prices are not good news for everyone, though. Investors with inflation-linked savings will get less for their money if price increases slow. It could also mean smaller amounts for pensioners and people claiming other state benefits.
Here is what it could mean for you:
Homeowners – The Bank of England signalled in its quarterly inflation forecasts that another hike to 6 per cent may be needed to bring inflation back to target, but that was before they had seen July’s inflation figures.
Ian Kernohan, economist at Royal London Asset Management, said: “The fact that index has come in well below expectations must put some question mark over a move to 6 per cent interest rates.”
An end to rate increases will be welcomed by those with variable mortgages, who have seen their monthly repayments soar over the past year.
A homeowner with a £200,000 interest-only loan on a variable rate is already paying an extra £208 a month, or £2,496 a year, as a result of the one and a quarter point increase in rates since August last year.
Unfortunately, some experts believe one more rate rise may still be necessary.
Howard Archer at Global Insight, a consultancy, said: “It is likely that inflation in July was brought down by some summer sales starting early, while recently elevated oil prices and possible future rises in food prices as a result of the bad weather could exert upward pressure on inflation over the next few months. We suspect the Bank of England will now sit tight until at least November while it monitors underlying inflation developments.”
Homeowners would pay an extra £42 a month, or £500 a year, if Bank rate went up another quarter of a percentage point.
Savings – If the drop in inflation is sustained investors with inflation-linked savings will earn less. National Savings index-linked savings certificates are based on the Retail Price Inflation (RPI), which fell to 3.8 per cent in July from 4.4 per cent.
Pensioners – Falling prices, especially for essentials like food, gas and electiricity, will be good news for pensioners. However, if inflation continues to fall it could have a sting in the tail. The Treasury uses September's RPI figures to fix the annual increase in the basic state pension and other benefits. Last September the index was at 3.6 per cent, now it is at 3.4 per cent, meaning the next increase could be lower than the last.
Benefits are increased in April each year. The basic state pension should rise to at least £90.30 a week next April from the present £87.30 if inflation in September is at 3.4 per cent.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?
Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge
With rail travel in Europe on the rise, we review the benefits of travelling by train
In this special section we explore new food trends to help improve your dinner party and impress guests
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more






1998
£47,955
2004
£56,950
Essex
Check your free Experian credit report before applying
Car Insurance
c. £70,000
The Duke of Edinburgh’s Award
Windsor
£123,460 pa
The Law Commission
London
Southwark County Council
£100,000
Home Office
Liverpool
Moments from Battersea Park.
For sale with Winkworth
Find out about shared ownership.
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Includes flights, accommodation with room upgrades, transfers city tours in Hong Kong and Bangkok.
PremierHolidays.co.uk
For your ultimate tailor-made ski holiday, click here
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
Choose from the beautiful landscape and tranquil beaches of Oahu, Kauai, Maui & Big Island.
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.