Ali Hussain
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Consumers are being urged to take steps to protect themselves from falling property prices, increased bills and the prospect of job losses.
Last week the stock market suffered another volatile run despite the much-vaunted recapitalisation of the banks. Unemployment figures showed 164,000 more jobless in the last quarter, taking the total to 1.79m.
Analysts at Capital Economics expect the jobless total to rise by another 1.5m by the end of 2010. It predicts house prices will fall by another 25% before they recover — even if the Bank of England cuts rates from 4.5% to 2.5% by the end of next year.
Martin Ellis, chief economist at Halifax, has also revised his prediction and suggests Bank rate will fall to about 3.5% by the end of this year, and to about 2.5% by the end of 2009. “The Bank has clearly changed its thinking on inflation risks as the economy slows down,” he said.
However, there are plenty of ways to protect yourself if you act now.
Ask your lender to keep rate cuts
It may sound perverse, but it may be the best way to protect yourself from further house-price falls. Many people find that when they come to remortgage, they cannot get such a good deal because the amount of equity in their homes has fallen along with house prices. However, by maintaining your repayments at existing levels even as mortgage rates fall, you could overpay your debt and boost your equity.
Suppose your property is valued at £420,000 today and you have a mortgage of £252,500 (60% of the property value), on a three-year tracker — currently at 5.44%. Your monthly payments would be £1,538 on a repayment basis over 25 years. If Bank rate fell by another two percentage points, your payments would reduce by £285 a month.
However, if house prices fell by 10% over the three years, your loan to value would increase to 61.3%, shutting you off from the cheapest deals when you come to remortgage.
If instead you used the savings to overpay, after three years, your outstanding mortgage would be £221,098, giving you a loan to value of 58%.
Richard Morea of brokers L&C Mortgages said: “By overpaying, you’re protecting yourself when you come to remortgage, assuming house prices fall. If prices fall by less than 10% over three years, then you may even be able to get a better deal.”
Most lenders allow you to make overpayments of up to 10% a year without a penalty, although some have caveats.
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Worry not-Gordon will bail us all out-hes so generous with our cash!
steve, West Midlands, uk
Government proposal: Spend your way out of trouble!!
Isn't that what the Country has been doing all along?!!
pedro, london, UK
"you could put it into an offshore roll-up fund". Thats not good advice if you read in this paper about the people who have lost their life savings in off shore banks last couple of weeks......
Peter, Birmingham, UK
Keep spending and borrowing like theres no tomorrow if you follow the example of our government!
colin, wolverhampton, UK
Well I might be alone here but maybe we could all make up our own minds with regards to what to buy and when. If someone is buying a house as a HOME then what different does it make whether it drops a bit more in value, buy 20% below today's prices thats when banks will fire the start pistol IMO.
kevin, sleaford,
Have to agree with Phil, Welwyn, keep your powder dry and avoid any investment tainted by government intervention. Buy a house @ 60% discount in 2012. For the time being watch the house of cards tumble.
vic, London, England
You missed off one of the easiest way to protect yourself which isn't recommended enough...
Don't buy a house. At least not until they hit rock bottom and you hear the sellers' pips squeak a couple of years from now (at least).
Phil, Welwyn, UK