David Budworth
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ANALYSTS are predicting turbulent times for shares but if you follow the right strategy you could beat the market. Here are the experts’ suggestions for weathering the storm.
Put up defences
Many fund managers recommend a switch into the traditional defensive areas of
cigarettes, utilities and phones as they should be able to maintain their
profits even as the UK economy slows.
Graham Secker at investment bank Morgan Stanley would buy the likes of British American Tobacco, energy firm International Power and telecoms firm Cable & Wireless.
Many analysts are backing Vodafone, the third-largest stock in the FTSE 100, which yields 3.7% and looks cheap. On Friday its shares cost 188.4p, a long way from the peak of 399p in March 2000.
Tesco is also popular. The supermarket chain receives £1 of every £7 spent in UK shops and is growing fast overseas.
Drug companies such as Astra Zeneca, Glaxo Smith Kline and Shire are also expected to be bright spots.
If you prefer a fund, advisers tip Jupiter Income or Invesco Perpetual Income,
where managers back defensive stocks.
Supersize your portfolio
Big businesses that generate plenty of cash have a better chance of
withstanding further turbulence. While the FTSE 100 has risen 4% this year,
the FTSE 250, which covers the next-biggest firms, has lost 5% of its value
and the Smallcap index is down 13%.
Many fund managers expect blue-chip firms to continue to beat their smaller rivals. Goldman Sachs recommends defence giant BAE Systems, electricity firm British Energy and mining company Xstrata.
For fund investors, Mark Dampier at adviser Hargreaves Lansdown highlights Schroder UK Alpha Plus, Gartmore UK Focus and iShares FTSE 100, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the index.
Back into property
One of the benefits of a turbulent market is that good companies are sold off
indiscriminately, offering savvy investors some bargains.
Construction and housebuilding shares have been sold off en masse this year as the commercial and retail property markets have soured. Some professionals, including Fidelity’s star stockpicker, Anthony Bolton, are taking a contrarian approach and betting on a recovery. If you want to follow his lead, Goldman Sachs likes British Land.
Advisers are still wary about many property funds. However, some believe it could be time to bet on property investment trusts as average discounts - the difference between the share price and the value of the underlying investments - exceed 35%. If you are feeling brave, Nick Sketch at adviser Rensburg Sheppard backs F&C Commercial Property.
Profit from food
The outlook for commodities looks uncertain - especially if the worst fears
about a global recession are realised. Base metals such as aluminium, nickel
and zinc have slumped by up to 45% in the past year amid worries about the
economic slowdown.
However, many investment banks remain optimistic about agricultural commodities since surging demand from developing markets like China and India and the growing fashion for alternative fuels should keep crop prices high.
Deutsche Bank tips Swiss firm Syngenta to benefit from the agricultural commodities boom. It produces herbicides and insecticides to protect crops and is seeing rising demand from American corn farmers. In the past year its shares have soared 29%.
Fund investors can buy Schroder Alternative Solutions Agriculture, listed in Luxembourg, which invests in a spread of agricultural commodities.
Chase the bear
Fund managers have become concerned about the outlook for some of the frothier
emerging markets with warnings that Asia, and particularly China, is a
bubble that could burst in 2008. A growing number believe Russia will take
over China’s crown next year.
Max King at Investec Asset Management said: “The Chinese market has seen extraordinary gains in the past two years, but Russia now looks the most attractive of the Bric [Brazil, Russia, India and China] markets.”
His views are echoed by Dampier, who said: “Everyone keeps on investing in China, but Russian stocks look cheaper. Russia has also been insulated from the credit crunch.” He recommends Neptune Russia and Greater Russia.
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