Merryn on money
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I HAVE been writing here for years now about all the horrors that are finally coming to light – the end of the credit bubble, recession in America and so on.
But the thing that I have focused on probably the most has been the housing bubble. I called its end rather too early (March, 2004!) but I can’t imagine that there are many people left who would still insist – as they have for the past five years – that the sharp rise in prices across Britain has not actually represented a bubble.
Until recently I was constantly told that the fundamentals of the housing market were strong thanks to the fact that supply for property was low and demand was strong, which made it nigh on impossible for prices to fall.
My endlessly repeated reply was to say that demand is not economic demand unless it is backed up by having the money to pay for the thing you demand.
We all want houses, of course we do, but if we can’t afford to pay for them, our wants can’t support a market.
I want a detached villa on the edge of Regent’s Park, (really badly, as it happens) but there’s no point factoring that into an analysis of the future price of detached villas on the edge of Regent’s Park. For one simple reason – I don’t have £25m to buy one with.
Now if I could get someone to lend me £25m (and if I was fool enough to take it) that would be a different matter.
My point? That the price of houses is not about the supply of houses and the demand for them in general, but about the supply of and demand for credit. You can only push the price of something up if you can – and if you want to – get the money together to do so.
So why are house prices falling now? Not because all of a sudden the average Englishman has decided he’d rather live in a caravan than in a four-bedroom executive home, but because house prices are well beyond the reach of prudent lending levels and the banks, paralysed by their new-found recognition of risk, will no longer lend at anything beyond cautious levels.
Got a 20% deposit and want to borrow three times your salary? Then you’re probably alright – albeit at a higher rate than you might have paid 12 months ago.
Got no deposit and want to borrow five times your income? Back to your caravan you go. According to mform.co.uk, a mortgage calculator, six months ago 22 lenders offered 100% mortgages. Today just a handful do – and they charge typical fees of more than £5,000, suggesting they aren’t all that crazy about people taking them out!
House prices got to their current levels – more than five times average earnings, according to Halifax – because lenders were prepared to provide the cash for it to happen. Now they won’t.
The result? Fewer and fewer buyers – and a rising climate of fear. New loans for homebuyers fell to 50,300 in January, the lowest level for nine years. And that is how property bubbles come to an end. Well, actually it is how all bubbles come to an end.
Easy money encourages borrowing which in turn pushes up the price of whichever asset the financial world has decreed to be a dead cert. Then some change in the environment calls a halt to the lending and the whole thing comes tumbling down.
You can already see the pain out there. In February, 64% more chartered surveyors reported price falls than rises in their areas, making the state of the property market on this measure nearly as horrible as it was in June 1990.
Repossessions are rising. Property investment clubs are shutting down – one of the biggest and once most persuasive, Inside Track, said it will be doing no more of its overhyped educational seminars after the end of this month.
And I am getting letters from people who have lost their shirts on the property market and have no idea what to do. I have had one from a small businessman who tells me he is down £200,000 thanks to his involvement with one club and consequent “investments” in the US and the UK property markets. And the really bad news is that things are likely to get worse before they get any better.
For starters, the credit crunch means mortgage rates are going to have to go up. James Ferguson of Pali International, a broker, points out it costs some of the big UK banks something up to two percentage points more than the risk-free rate (the rate on long-term government bonds) to borrow money on their own account for five years – so 6% plus.
Add their margins into that and it suggests they should be charging about 8% to lend it to you in the form of a five-year fixed-rate mortgage. Right now they aren’t doing that. At some point, though, they’ll all have to put up their rates if they want to make any money at all – reality can’t be ignored forever.
And as rates go up, buy-to-let investors who might just be breaking even will find it is costing them more and more to hold on to their depreciating investments every month. So they will sell. So will many of the people who have been on very low fixes for the past few years and find they can’t afford a remortgage.
And so will many other people who find that with house prices flat or falling, the effort of making monthly repyments just no longer feels worth it. How far will prices fall before all this plays out? I have no idea, but I do know I won’t be in the market for a house for a few years yet.
This is my last column for The Sunday Times. I’ve really enjoyed writing here, but I have decided to spend more time with my family. I am very grateful to all of those who have read my endless predictions of the end of the financial world, and particularly to those who have written in to me with their own thoughts on the markets. My final advice? Hang on to your gold for a bit longer and, for heaven’s sake, don’t buy any houses.
Merryn Somerset Webb is a former stockbroker and now editor of Money Week. Her views are personal and investors should always seek professional advice
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thanks Merryn , a journalist who tells the truth and cares.
best wishes for the future.
adam, london,
Merryn,
I sensed a certain smugness and relief in your column that the property bubble has at last burst.
Remember though, a lot of people have made a lot of money over the last 10 years.
Property is no different to stocks and shares. It`s knowing when to sell that turns a profit. heaven knows you`ve warned us for log enough.
Enjoy your sabbatical and thanks for some great advice.
Kevin, Northumberland,
Merryn
WIll miss your weekly article a lot. You have written good common sense every week based on sound reasoning and all who have read your articles are the wiser for it.
We hope to have you, and your wisdom, back as soon as possible
Paul
Paul Glaser, Watford, England
good luck the only person to write any sense on the housing market will miss your articles
stephen carter, wakefield, england
The falls everybody are mentioning here are all quite clearly newbuild flats. They were never worth what was being paid for them and as the BBC have documented, this is fraud, not price falls.
In everything I have read in the papers, the examples show how much the average mortgage holder coming to an end of a fix is going to have to pay £100 a month extra. It ignores the fact that this has not risen for 2,3 or 5 years... not a very big uplift and very affordable.
The credit crunch will reduce new houses being built, there is a housing shortfall, if houseprices aren't rsing, RENTS WILL.
Rents look to be rising at 15% per year, this may continue for 5 years, thus rents could double in 5 years, on an £800 a month flat that is an £800 increase, much more than the £100 increase for homeowners. I think that this could be a time where FTB's are put off buying, Landlords buy cheaply, rents rocket and FTB's can no longer save....... This could be FTB's last chance to buy!
Mat, Sussex,
Merryn
Good luck in the future, and thanks for illuminating that part of the financial landscape few else could see, mainly because they didn't want to see.
I am sure that somewhere, sometime, we will be hearing from you again......
I suspect many hope so!
Maybe an update in a couple of years time about a "cash on the nail" property purchase perhaps?
Here's hoping - and not just for you :)
Andy, Bath,
All the best and good luck for the furture, I really enjoyed your articles as I tried to understand more about the markets and investments. Good Luck. Ross (Glasgow)
Ross McEachern, Glasgow, UK
So many economists and financial commentators only state the obvious on a current situation. Merryn however was refreshing in her approach giving a commonsense approach to the likely consequences of a given situation. In particular I like her take on the property market - where others have concentrated to much on the simplistic argument of supply and demand of housing. Rather than the supply and demand of credit / the ratio between average income and average house prices - most seeming to miss the basic link with affordability. I would further argue that many financial institutions have fueled the housing market boom in prices by their own greed in acquiring a larger market share (Northern Rock being a prime example) to the detriment of the long term stability of the market and the average person. The good thing about markets though is they tend to correct themselves very effectively over time.
John Jones, Nottingham, England
It's a shame this is MSW's last article. She's the only reason I used to buy the times, and the only one who dared to tell the truth about the great UK property scam. I wish her well.
Julian, London,
You column was a refreshing opinion in a press dominated by blinkered and vested entities.
Well written, informative and entertaining observations, and most importantly - accessible!
I have to admit, your scathing attack on the state of the UK and its heavy reliance/obsession with the housing market was a shock to many, a bet a needed one, to wake them from their apathy of ignorance.
As a regular reader, ST is losing a very valued and much read columnist.
Well done and best wishes on your bright future.
steveo, Ireland,
Thank you Merryn for everyone of your excellent articles.
I have read them every sunday now for a long long time.
Sometimes i have ignored your advice, to my peril and at other time taken your advice, to my joy.
I for one, will certainly be signing the 'bring back Merryn petition'
I wish you and your family lots of happiness.
Brian D'Rozario, Antwerpen, Belgium
I have really enjoyed your articles. I have found your perspecuity in analysing events over the years so stimulating. I am going to miss you!
Peter Fox , Seville, Andalucia
Come back! I miss youalready! What will we do for sense? How can e find out what you`re thinking??
Paul Willis, Wolves, England
The house price fall may be a little sooner and a little steeper than suggested. These things seem to take on a life of their own when sentiment is so negative and the fundamentals are not there - ie - cheap and easy money and very expensive property. Already there are pockets of extreme falls - ie £269 K luxury flats in Manchester now going for £80 - £100 K. Leeds and Liverpool are in the same situation. The falls can not be far off now.
David Nammory, Liverpool,
Its a shame that it is your last article. In the short-term we may well see the real value of properties as only mortgage-free cash purchasers will be able to buy, which will not benefit the BTL brigade whose mortgage pyramids will have collapsed. In the medium term, lending will gradually return but needs to be more tighly regulated.
Paul, Coventry,
I live in Germany. The first thing I read on Sunday is your column. I am sure many will miss you sensible advice. Time to start a 'bring back Merryn' petition!
Roger Cook, Wiesbaden, Germany
This is an excellent article and sums up what I have been trying to say on ww.co.thisismoney.co.uk.The trouble is some people are not listening.You forgot to mention the £1.4 treillion debt mountain and the 2% inflation target.I think that this is a VERY BIG problem for the UK economy.
stephen hulton, eure, france
I, like yourself have been parping on about the impending financial doom that this wreckless lending will eventually bring.
Hopefully something will be learnt from it for the next generation........
Alan F, channel islands,
Merryn
you are right.
the problem is that the common people do not understand economics and financial leverage, two key concepts that have been preached completely wrong by those parties with huge vested interests who have inflated this bubble:
- the estate agents (economics: the small island, the singletons, the students, immigration etc)
- the mortgage brokers (it is a new era, shelve that salary multiple, what really matter is affordability)
- the banks (we only originate loans, and dispose of them in the fixed income market a minute later)
- the "property economists", these are a mix of characters like Fionnuala Earley, Diana Choleya, of uncertain background whose job has been to fabricate a theory to explain the endlessly rising prices, feeding this lunacy to the VIs above
Well, all that is ending, my main question is what are all these people gonna do for a living next?
George W, Chelsea,
Thanks for your guidance and contrarian opinion over the years Merryn. These days, you're not so contrarian - everyone has become a bear now that the crash is unquestionably underway.
I'm glad to have listened to my own judgement and that of a few people like yourself. I can continue sitting on the sidelines, saving my pennies while prices come down to realistic levels, then finally, I will buy my first property in the UK.
What a relief for the UK's 20, 30 and 40 somethings.
Jake Brumby, High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire
The other thing is the whole streets of unsold new flats from the major developers. how can they stay in business and sell only a few units in some of their overpriced developments per year? the answer is through re-financing with their banks on huge scale.. now that no more money is avaliable they will either have to drop their prices big way or go under or both...
andrew, edinburgh,