After its stellar rise above $1,000 an ounce gold has fallen into the shadows, shedding over $100 in the past month. However, if you believe in the long-term case for bullion, as I do,then this should be merely a pause in the upward path and the current $820 could be a golden opportunity.

Many speculators gratefully took big profits as the price hit $1,000, and it was bound to take a hit as they exited. In recent weeks gold has been driven down by one or two European banks unexpectedly dumping 30 tonnes onto the market. That has driven the price below $800, which had been seen by many investors as a floor.

That seems to have dried up, though, and the period from now to the end of the year is usually good for gold, helped by the run-up to Christmas, Diwali, Hanukkah and the new year.

The price will behave nervously for a few weeks after having had to cope with such a shock, but in the next couple of years’ uncertainty I see it as many people’s bolthole.

You certainly shouldn’t put large amounts into the yellow metal, no more than a tenth or twentieth of your spare cash, but it is worth being in there.

The dramatic resurgence of the US dollar has been another factor in the weakness of gold, oil and anything else priced in dollars. This affects us all. America is the world’s biggest economy – second only to Europe as our biggest export market – and the haven for billions of pounds of British savings through investment funds.

The dollar has strengthened for three main reasons. First, demand for dollar-denominated commodities has fallen so more investors are willing to hold dollars because of its greater buying power. Second, investors are coming round to the view that America will emerge from recession earlier than Europe or Asia.

Third, it looks increasingly as though the Bank of England and European Central Bank will be unable to raise interest rates for some time and may have to cut them, making the pound and euro less attractive.

While this will slash the price of British goods and services bought by Americans, helping to keep our economy ticking over, £100 will buy fewer shares in Microsoft or General Electric.

There has been much talk of tides turning and this being a defining moment for the dollar, but I question how long the new trend will last.

Of the three factors supporting the dollar, only the first is new. Commentators have accepted for most of this year that the US was first into the downturn and would be first out of it, and that the central banks on this side of the Atlantic would be unable to move on interest rates.

I can’t see commodity prices sliding for long. Asia and South America have embarked on historic strides forward that will require them to suck in more or sell less of every major commodity from oil to coffee.

And Africa is preparing to join the race. It is decades behind the rest of the world, but things can only go one way, adding to demand for raw materials.

So the fight for resources will intensify, which will shackle the advanced economies’ ability to grow.

I believe it is too early to bet on a US recovery. The mortgage crisis there has yet to finish unwinding and all the signs are that the famously resilient American consumer is finally tiring. Shopping trolleys are being pushed from Whole Foods down the line to Safeway, Target and Wal-Mart – whose core shoppers are staying at home.

The slowdown has at least another two years to go. That means next year will be quite soon enough to be buying into the US, and only the rash would predict where the dollar will be by then.

Gap year options

TONY BLAIR’s decision to turn student grants into loans sounded very logical – why should the most talented be given a three-year gift to help them become even higher earners? – but it has caused untold financial misery and deterred thousands of bright yet poor youngsters from seeking a university education.

Families who are modestly well off raid their savings to help put their children through college, while graduates commonly spend their twenties repaying student loans.

There is, however, a simple solution: delay your degree course, spend a few years working and save to go to university. This might mean delaying the gap-year trip round the world. If you can find work that takes you travelling that is a bonus, but you can always take a year off when you have been in a job for several years.

I admit I couldn’t wait to get through university and get into the outside world, but most students are not that eager to start a career. And, who knows, you may get a preuniversity job that has more potential or is more enjoyable than the degree course you land. Your employer may help pay tuition fees as long as you return to the firm after you graduate, though that promise is not enforceable.

It’s not too late to change tack, even for this autumn. Many colleges will keep a place open if the intending student is going to do something constructive in the meantime.

What could be more constructive than earning money?

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