Robert Cole, Personal investor
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The uncertainty that it brings makes life difficult for wealth creators and employers. It also makes new borrowing more expensive. Any benefits, in other words, are illusory.
The risk is that governments do not see it that way. Which politician would choose tax increases over stealthy debt reduction through inflation? Although the Bank of England has responsibility for controlling UK inflation, its tool - interest rates - may be insufficiently powerful. And cunning politicians could find ways to pin the blame for rising prices on the Bank while failing to take vote-losing action themselves.
If prices rise, even at relatively modest rates, the real value of money falls with worrying speed. Over the past decade, when UK policymakers have been acclaimed for keeping the lid on prices, money has lost about a third of its true value. Inflation averaged only 2.7 per cent a year in that time. Even so, what would have cost £100 in 1998 would now be £131. Between 1967 and 1977, one of the worst periods of inflation in recent history, Bank of England statistics show that inflation averaged 11.3 per cent a year. After those ten years, £1 was worth only 34p.
What are the options for savers and investors? If inflation does run away with itself, holders of bonds and cash may lose out. Some protection will come with index-linked products, and these merit a prominent position in almost any portfolio at present. Logic suggests that equities and property, which many see as the risky place to put money in times of trouble, are the inflation beaters.
If you own property, you remove the risk of having to pay more for accommodation. Rents rise as inflation climbs. If you own property for rent, your income should keep pace with inflation - if you can find reliable tenants. Meanwhile, like a sly government, those who take on debt to buy property will find the burden becomes progressively less onerous.
Shares have a history of faring relatively well in times of high inflation. The 2008 edition of the Barclays Capital Equity Gilt Study shows that bonds lost value at an inflation-adjusted rate of 3.2 per cent a year between 1967 and 1977. Equities shed a mere 0.2 per cent a year in real terms. The crucial difference is that a well-run company can compensate its shareholders for high inflation by raising dividends over time. Income from bonds is usually set at a fixed point. Interest rates on cash deposits may fail to keep up with rising prices, too.
In the past few years shares and property were seen as the ways to make money. If high inflation takes root, shares and property will help to protect the value of savings.
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