The recent picture of a Vladivostok tax protester being marched away by riot police is a grim omen for the new year, and a sight that I fear will be repeated several times around the world before this recession is over.

One of the sentiments being bandied about before Christmas was “let’s hope 2009 is nothing like as bad as this year”. I expect next year will be all too similar to 2008, although we should at least be better prepared than 12 months ago.

If tears are being shed over the closure of Woolworths, I dread the wailing when another dozen high-street names vanish.

This is the time to stock up on spare parts for everything from gadgets to dinner services in case the supplier or its outlets disappear. Hardly any can count themselves safe.

Yet none of this desperation seemed likely a year ago. I wrote then: “The real problem is lack of confidence, and the main theme of 2008 will be the search for the magic wand that restores that confidence.” Sadly, we’re still looking.

Early this year I hoped we might be pulling out of the gloom by now, but after the chancellor’s March budget speech it was clear the misery was going to continue well into 2009.

And that was before Washington decided to stop rescuing banks and let Lehman Brothers go bust in September.

The impact of that is damningly etched in the FTSE 100 index graph. It had been steady for most of the first half of the year, though beginning to lose ground. However, it plunged from September to November, treading water since then as investors have tried — and are still trying — to make sense of where we are heading.

As long ago as April, headlines began appearing that the credit crisis was over. Some highly respected fund managers jumped in to advise that we should start making contrary bets, like buying bank shares — too early, alas.

So this year we have been in the learning phase. The main lesson, still not fully grasped, is how long all this is going to go on for.

In his pre-budget report last month the chancellor, Alistair Darling, was still following the Bank of England line that we were in for a sharp dip next summer then the recovery would begin.

But few go along with that prediction. Only last week John Varley, Barclays’ chief executive, was saying he didn’t think bank lending would revive for certainly a year, and maybe two.

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