William Kay
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Sunblest bread, Twinings tea and Primark jeans are rapidly making Associated British Foods (ABF) the ideal recession share.
As Domino’s Pizza and Greggs the baker showed last week, Brits are hunkering down in the teeth of the economic blizzard. Their booming sales were a sharp contrast to the problems at Marks & Spencer and the chocolate- shop chain Thorntons.
Primark was an early star of the drive to cheaper clothes, and now ABF’s tea-and-toast combination is meeting the “back to basics” mood with a helping of comfort food.
The 2.7% yield on ABF shares is below average precisely because the market rates its prospects better than most — I reckon that dividend stands a better chance than many others of being maintained or even increased. And it looks generous compared with most savings rates these days, especially after the Bank of England’s latest cut.
That’s just one of a growing number of signs that the downturn is affecting the real world beyond impersonal percentages and pound signs.
Another is the standard light bulb. Due to new European Union rules banning them, you’ll have a tough job buying any this weekend because of the rush to avoid change.
While the Eurosceptic lobby sees this as Brussels treading on our cherished traditions, a six-pack of standard 60w pearl light bulbs cost £1.21 but a single 60w low-energy stick light bulb will set you back around £2.20. It might last longer, but you have to take that on trust at the check-out.
That sort of difference is in the kerosene league when it comes to sparking flare-ups between otherwise loving couples, so it’s no surprise to learn domestic violence is on the rise.
We have entered a new phase of the recession. Everyone seems to be running round like headless chickens with instant solutions, from David Cameron and his tax cuts to online pawnbroker Borro waiving the first month’s interest on loans.
Many firms are trying to cash in on the near-panic by offering quick fixes that will last about as long as a soggy bandage. You’re wasting your time if you think you are going to emerge from this recession unscathed.
We’re all going to be hit one way or another: lost jobs, frozen or shrunken pay, lousy to non-existent interest on savings, mortgage and credit-card interest that somehow never seems to fall, cowboy builders for that attic you want to turn into an extra bedroom.
Then there are the outright illegals, including the rash of scam e-mails reported by the tax authorities. All tax refunds are made by post and they never ask for your bank details.
We’re still on the fringes of this economic wasteland, so it is worth making a conscious decision not to let the niggles get to you.
I am not suggesting for an instant that it’s any fun to put off buying a bigger house because the banks have stopped lending, or to scrap that ski trip due to the soaring euro.
Those are decisions you can sit round the kitchen table and make fairly calmly. It’s the small, shoe-pinching cuts that hurt, and contain the most potential for strife. If I have to give up GQ you can forget your trips to the spa, that sort of thing.
Best plan is to write all your income and spending on a single sheet of paper, so you can see where you are going.
You’ll get a clearer idea of the threats to income — and possible areas for making more. You can also be more dispassionate about what, if anything, has to be lopped off the expenses.
If you have bank savings, you might as well assume nil interest from that direction. Banks are only paying out what they have to under contracts such as fixed-rate deals, and company dividends are being maintained mainly to prevent their share prices from collapsing.
As the chancellor, Alistair Darling, put it: “There are going to be some tough calls and very difficult decisions. But we must do whatever we can to get through it.”
Even professional investors are being forced to rethink old habits. I couldn’t help doing a double-take at Darling’s story of the understandably anonymous chief executive who proudly told him: “Now we’re only investing in markets we understand.”
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