One of the biggest conundrums for investors at the moment is whether, by pumping money into western economies, governments have inflated bubbles in everything from junk bonds to gold.

If you’re in the bubble camp, you’re in good company. Nouriel Roubini, the professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business who correctly predicted the credit crunch, is on your side. He wrote recently: “Risky asset prices have risen too much, too soon and too fast compared with macro-economic fundamentals ... But one day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinated asset bust ever.”

Worrying words, especially as the latest bubble to be identified is in the commercial property sector — just as private investors are getting back in.

New Star UK Property (now part of Henderson), a fund that has slumped from about £2 billion at its 2007 peak to just £647m today, is again taking investors’ cash as advisers such as Bestinvest start recommending it once more.

If you’re an investor who has recently taken the plunge, the newest forecast from Colliers CRE, the property consultancy, is bound to be concerning.

It said prices being paid for good-quality office blocks and retail developments in London and the southeast have been pushed to bubble-like levels by the weight of money pouring into the sector.

This doesn’t feel like 2007 to me, though. Colliers CRE is predicting a total return from commercial property of only 0.4% for 2009 — the first bubble I’ve seen where you’ve made less than 1% in a year.

Admittedly, this is a sharp reversal in fortunes from earlier in the year when commentators predicted declines of nearly 20%. And in parts of the capital, prices have certainly been bid up to silly levels — some properties are being sold on yields as low as 4%.

However, the commercial property fund managers say values across the market are still below their 2007 peak. One look at their funds suggests if there is a bubble, they certainly haven’t participated — they are up by an average of 10.8% over six months and 2.2% on the year.

I’d look elsewhere for bubbles — to gold, which has jumped 56% over the past year to a record $1,120 — or emerging markets.

India’s Sensex 30 index surged 37% over the past six months and 75% over the year, despite the threat of inflation and imminent interest rate hikes.

In China, meanwhile, shares have gained 32% over six months and 78% over the year, despite evidence that the government’s stimulus programme has simply created too much capacity. Commercial properties in the export hub of Guangzhou lie empty and shops in many other cities are bereft of customers, according to Tom Becket, head of global investment strategy at PSigma Investment Management: “It strikes me again and again that this phenomenal pace of building is taking place in hope rather than an immediate reality,” he said.

While I think there are better candidates for bubbles than UK commercial property, that’s not to say I would pile in. Many think 2010 will be tougher than 2009 for investors, with possible tax hikes and interest rate rises.

Higher-risk assets that have risen sharply this year — whether real estate, commercial property, or smaller companies — could fall back, which would be a better time to buy.

For the moment, I would focus on the laggards — UK equity income funds that hold good-quality defensive stocks such as Glaxo Smith Kline, or North America funds, up only 12% over the past six months.

Kathryn Cooper is editor of the Money section

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