Gary Duncan, Economics Editor, and Grainne Gilmore
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The Bank of England pushed ahead with a fifth rise in interest rates in less than a year yesterday, lifting borrowing costs to a six-year high just as millions more homebuyers face a sudden jump in their mortgage bills.
The decision to order another quarter-point increase in base rates, to 5.75 per cent, the highest level since February 2001, will turn up the heat on hard-pressed households. Economists said yesterday that homeowners and businesses should get ready for further increases in rates this year.
The Bank’s move comes as many homeowners are hit by an abrupt end to cheap mortgage deals that have so far insulated them from the four previous rate rises.
Some 750,000 borrowers will reach the end of two-year fixed-rate loan deals, taken out when base rates were just 4.5 per cent, before the end of the year. They face a stark choice between a costlier variable rate from their lender, or switching to a new, but much more expensive, mortgage fix.
It is only in recent weeks that the cost of repayments for new fixed-rate loans has become more costly than for existing mortgages, as past rate increases have been factored into the cost of credit by money markets. As leading business groups sounded warnings that the Bank was risking interest rate “overkill”, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said that ever more people were set to be hit by the expiry of their fixed-rate deals.
Some two million or more borrowers who are due to see such deals run out over the next 18 months face steep increases in repayments. “Inevitably this will leave more households financially stretched,” Michael Coogan, the council’s director-general, said.
His caution came after official figures last week showed that households were already saving the smallest fraction of incomes than at any time since 1960.
After what they saw as a hawkish statement from the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) yesterday, economists forecast further increases in rates as the Bank applies tough medicine to ensure inflation meets its 2 per cent target. “Consumers will probably be slammed by a further rise to 6 per cent before the end of the year,” David Brown, of Bear Stearns, the City investment bank, predicted.
Roger Bootle, economic adviser to Deloitte, the accounting group, agreed: “I would not rule out interest rates rising beyond 6 per cent. It is becoming increasingly likely that the MPC will consider a slowdown in the economy as a sacrifice worth making in order to secure low inflation.”
Although not all City economists believe that base rates will rise again, a Reuters poll showed that more than half expect borrowing costs to reach 6 per cent soon.
Yesterday’s decision will be welcomed as a vindication by Mervyn King, the Bank’s Governor, who was defeated last month when the rate-setting committee split 5-4 to hold rates, with Mr King on the losing side. For the Governor to be outvoted for a second month in a row would have been seen by some as straining both his and the Bank’s credibility.
The move to raise rates means that Mr King and his fellow hawks succeeded in winning over at least one other MPC member. But there was speculation in the City that the committee was probably divided once more over yesterday’s decision.
In a statement, the Bank said that it judged that inflation risks “continued to lie on the upside” – a comment taken by the City as a hint of further interest rate action to follow. The MPC said that while inflation had fallen from May’s 3.1 per cent peak, and was set to drop further, growth in the economy remained “firm”, credit (borrowing by households and business) continued to grow rapidly and the world economy remained robust.
Business groups were split over the rate rise. The Institute of Directors argued that it had “little choice but to act”. It said: “Tough but wise decisions are part of the job description.” The British Chambers of Commerce attacked the Bank’s “increasingly aggressive stance” which risked “inflicting lasting damage on the economy”.
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Perhaps I'm missing something on inflation.
India and China's wages rocket, due to their own inflation problems.
In response, off shoring ends, jobs even come back, and prices go up.
As prices go up, even the governments inflation index will rise, so wages will rise with it.
And rather than house prices falling to match earnings, earnings will rise to match house prices.
No?
The problem with the other I see is money supply, if the amount of money sloshing around increased 14% in the past year alone, then inflation has already happened, the system just hasnt correted yet, and prices and wages will rise to correct it
Domini, Manchester, UK
I agree with Fabio. This is the biggest asset price bubble in history. Unless you belong to the 'end of history' brigade and believe that interest rates will stay below 6% for the rest of time, then there has to be price falls. The effect of cheap labour from China and India will rapidly diminish as their wage rates and currencies rise over the next few years, bringing an end to our constant low inflation, low interest rate environment. At some point its at least quite likely that all those BTLers are going to head for the exit at about the same time. If that happens, the whole unholy ediface will come crashing down on our unworthy heads. And don't we deserve it!!!!
Simon, Carrickfergus, Antrim
Stan from Sydney - yes, you're right that the government has reduced its spending and with what results? A rail system like a third world country, a road system that is rarely repaired (even apartment blocks falling in where a new road tunnel was being built!), public education in very run-down buildings and a medical system where, even with private health care, there's still a substantial gap that the individual has to pay!
There's no panacea!
Karen, Sydney, Australia
I'm looking for a place myself at the moment and it is true that I cannot afford to live exactly where I want to live - But thats surely the whole point! Unfortunately not everyone can afford to live in the "best" parts of London or whichever town you're in. The compromise is in location or condition or size - you can buy a nice house/flat but then you have to travel longer into work etc.
lets not make quite such a fuss about it Fabio - learn to compromise
Matt, London,
As an estate agent I have seen people borrow ridiculus amounts of money and there needs to be a return to earnings to borrowing. Also the housing market is a market and it must be remembered that prices can go up as well as down.
muzzler, London,
The actual cost in administration within the economy for the alteration of interest rates must be astronomic to all concerned,certainly,not justifying 1/4% changes.
derek bevan, huntingdon/cambs, England/UK
As always it is the consumer that suffers. I cannot see how pushing up the interest rate slows inflation. Apart from anything else, it just fuels costs for the millions of us who own homes; what are we supposed to do, move into the street and sell our homes to people who can't afford them either?
The problem lays in an over availability of general credit and already over inflated house prices. House price inflation only benefits those who are trading down, the fat cats who have money to invest in property to make even more money or the estates of those who die. For the rest of us who have to live somewhere, the continuing increase in house prices is all relative - paper money - while for those at the bottom end who have to start somewhere, it is impossible.
But then I guess all of the above is about the capitalist system under which we sadly live or should I say exist. Constant worry for millions takes away a real quality of life.
edwardingle, chesham,
That correction would leave a lot of people in negative equaity- especially considering how many have to take out 95-100% loan-to-value mortgages in order to get their place on the ladder.
This is essentially why the government, and no other major party is interested in solving the problem- current homeowners will vote out any party that loses them their home- as we saw in '97
jb500, HD1, UK
Well done, MPC! Keep it up!
Michele, Richmond,
About time too.
Cheap credit = extortionate property prices, people glowing in the rays of their ever increasing property values should realise that paper wealth is just that, it can't be spent without either becoming homeless, borrowing against it, or dying.
All three options are not without tears, lets get back to sensible credit arrangments, give the youth of today a chance, not a future of ever increasing repayments for the sake of a roof over their heads, there must be a better way.
Prudence, Durham,
Justice? Wake up. What about non-first time buyers, why should they be penalised by loosing the equity value in their homes? Remember, for there to be a severe correction in the property market (not a slowdown - which I agree will happen) many more elements of the economy will need to correct too, stock market etc. So for all of you "Renters" out there waiting for this property crash so that you can pick up cheap property just remember, if there is a severe correction in the market - everyone is affected, everyone, not just homeowners - so chances are, unless you have a few million stashed away (in which case you wouldn't be speculating on a property market crash anyway) you probably won't be able to get a mortgage to fund your new cheap property, and will therefore continue to rent from homeowners.
KBS, London, UK
I'm not sure what you mean, James. If the purchase price is low, even high interest rates are easy to swallow. The only people to suffer will be those who borrowed what they could not afford.
There has to be - and will be - a correction in order to peg inflation. We have the highest inflation rates for 16 years. People appear to have forgotten how dangerous inflation was in the 70s and 80s.
Jo, Cambridgeshire, UK
People have the choice to borrow or not, borrow to much and can't afford the repayments.........tuff.
Shane, blackburn, lancs
Fabio, Exactly how is justice served when I as a first time buyer scrimped, saved and did without for years to afford my downpayment AND THEN the value of my property is cut to accomodate these poor 'downtrodden first time buyers' as you demand.
I managed to get on the housing ladder with zero help (and a lot of hindrance from the state) - I dont see why either my taxes or my property should be messed about with when I managed it.
Geo, Glasgow,
what a load of rubbish.
the problem with the housing market is one of supply....interest rates do determine the prices of property, but this will always remain out of the reach of 1st time buyers - except those who receive assitance from relatives...
steve h, london, UK
Which first time buyers, Fabio? A correction could hurt as many as it helps. As someone who in the next couple of months could be buying I could be hurt either way! Wait and see them rise whilst spending dead end rent, or buy and hope they don't crash whilst spending inflated mortgage..
Rich, Reading,
The rate rises are indeed bad news for lenders, but for every person with a mortgage there are 2 or 3 with savings and at least an equal number living partly on interest or pension annuities, all of which will now rise.
TONY, birmingham, uk
Agreed - there must be a correction soon in these over inflated property prices to enable first time buyers to get on the market. Much of the property shortage has been created by the greed of buy to let landlords owning several/many properties and those with second/third homes, thus restricting supply. I would like to know why GB has not plugged the hole re tax relief on mortgage interest that such landlords enjoy to the detriment of the rest of home owners?
Its time for the Government to act soon before we are all living in a polarised society with the rich "gated off" from the rest of us ordinary beings!
Clive, Oxford,
I agree with Stan in Australia - there are many ways for a government to intervene to control inflation. Relying on the Bank of England to inch up interest rates is a very blunt way to deal with the problem. Why not reform taxation so that property becomes equally attractive to equities and savings rather than the sem-tax loophole it is at the moment? Why not regulate lenders more so that monster mortgages aren't permitted or only permitted at punitive rates?
There are all kinds of ways to dampen the housing boom and mitigate its inflationary effects - raising rates is taking far too long to slow the market and when it does it will hurt recent buyers the most.
MB, Edinburgh,
James,
I wish:
> an end to the easy money
> an end to foreigners bidding up house prices in my neighborood "because you can BTL with no money down. It s all paid for by the bank!"
> an end to the proliferation of parasite estate agents that lie for a living
> a return to normal life, and normal interest rates i.e. between 6 and 8%, as per their historical average
> the ability to people to buy a decent annuity when they retire
You be careful what to wish for: rampant inflation, do not give a d... about people who honestly work, saves and wants to build a responsible financial future
Michele, Richmond,
Problem is the MPC, like most analysts, simply read the statistics, not what's behind them.
Chippy, Bristol,
Fabio C - be careful what you wish for.
James, London, UK
For justice be served and sanity be recovered, there must be a correction in the housing market. Anything else short of that will only penalise the first time buyer.
Fabio C, London, UK
Mr Brown can do a great deal to check inflation - by reducing government spending. Monetary policy is a blunt instrument and it hurts the average person the hardest.
In Australia, the government is running healthy surpluses and controlling its spending and the base rate here is 6.25% with inflation under control.
Stan Coveney, Sydney, Australia