There are numerous advisors here saying 'wake up' The OECD has said that housing is overvalued in Britain by 60%. The money lenders pretend to disagree - naturally, because this would spell disaster for their chances of ever recovering their money in a crash. Wake up indeed - your house is worth 40% of what you think it is. If you can't make that calculation I'll do it for you. £200,000 is £80,000, £300,000 is £120,000. £400,000 is £160,000, £500,000 is £200,000. You can carry on. Now look at what your house is really worth and what you owe. The difference is the very least you will still owe when the lenders have repossessed your house and sold it. Will you be able to pay it? Of course not. That's why the lenders are in denial - they are more broke than you and won't face up to it. They are more in danger than you because millions of people in this country owe vastly more than they can ever pay back - 60% more in fact.

eric campbell, harrogate, uk

I am a buy-to-let investor and I have bought in 2002 when prices were 80% below current levels here in Camden.
If there is evidence that prices are falling by some percent next year, I will not hesitate to sell, even if I have to drop my price by 5 or 10%, since I have made my profit already.
Worse could be that, by waiting, I stand to lose more the following year.

Martin, Camden,

The Market is different now with all the buy to letters, who will be unhappy with 2% yearly growth.
But they arent going to take a 20% loss instead.

Dominic, Manchester, UK

The crash is highly probable since the market "is different now". The difference being BTL investors who will not be content to see their capital taking dust and grow at a mere 2% a year, while the rental yield does not cover mortgage payments. Thus they will want to sell and take profit.
This is the first time BTL accounts for 20% of all housing transactions in this country. We are going into uncharted territory and forecasting the future with simplistic "supply shortage" arguments is naive.

Jonathan, Ealing,

It’s a case of supply and demand, demand is higher that supply, why on earth would there be a crash when the seller still holds the upper hand, and will still hold it for the foreseeable future. A slowing down in the market is natural from all points of view with interest rates increasing but that is in no way an indicator of a crash – it’s simply an indicator of the impact of higher interest rates – that was the whole point of the rate increasing.

Mark Ryan, Manchester, England

We can see that numerous individuals across property forums are joining forces in the hope of bringing down the 'Great Property Giant'. But perhaps some arguments against a property 'crash' occurring are in order. The mortage market has fundamentally changed since the previous housing downturn in the 90's. Even with rates at 5.75% we are still seeing 5.00 - 5.5% or lower residential/BTL fixed rate mortgages readily available .... the only difference being a higher lending fee ... which can be added to the mortgage balance. This gives the homeowner/landlord flexibilty when coming to remortgage and allows them to keep monthly payments at similar levels to that pre-remortgage. Furthermore, we are still seeing a shortfall in housing supply, an increasing number of single households (whether owning or renting), a net inflow of people into the UK and low unemployment levels. In reality no-one knows where property will go next ..... unless perhaps you're Mervyn King.

Phil, London, England

The house price spreadbet market at spreadfair.com appears to be predicting a slowdown at the moment. If people are willing to put money on this happening does that make it more likely?

Simon, Leeds,

Country does not need to go into recession for house price to fall. I has happened in the US, Spain and RoIreland -- no recession needed. Wake up, smell the coffee and watch out of your window.

Michelle, Richmond,

House price cannot go up forever, has there ever been a boom in history that has not gone bust?
From real estate to commodities, stocks and bonds, what goes up must come down, history has taught us this.
All good things must come to an end, whatever house owners may like to believe, the UK housing market will crash.

Mr Hardeep Anand, Mumbai, India

When will they do something about self declaration!.If this was stopped yes there would be a collapse but at least first time buyers would have a chance and people wouldnt have to tie themselves into 40 year mortgages!!

Grant Kirkwood, Tewkesbury, UK

"Lets hope house prices do crash then we will be able to afford to buy one!"

Yes, once the country goes into recession (the only real way that prices will crash) you'll find it easy to buy property.

Wake up.

Dan, Bristol,

A year ago, 6% was given as the threshold for a crash. Prices have risen and affordability has fallen since then. If 5.75 is enough to cause a plateau in prices even before the two years it takes for interest rates to feed in fully, then expect a minor downturn with 6% a correction at 6.25% and crash at 6.5 to 7%. At the beginning of the year only one or two people predicted 6% interest rates by end of year. If oil stays elevated along with food, etc. then we will experience anything between 7 - 8% rates. Remember that other countries are tightening their monetary policy. If Euroland and other places get close to our rates, then the value of sterling will fall, sending imported inflation up overnight, so BOE is playing a game of keepie uppie, from being too lax in 2004, it now no longer has room to set the agenda. Expect a crash, a harsh one, bottoming out just before the Olympics and the run up to a general election, by which time, a feel good factor will have returned,

Philip Ridley, London, England

The USA economic pundits said a crash of any sort was unlikely -- and look at it now. The 'experts' believe other factors are required to push house prices over the cliff? This is not the case in the US as the overall economy is bouncing along -- the same will be true for the UK. Unless of course the BoE squeals yet again and caves in, allowing inflation to be be ignored -- just like it did in 2004. Watch, wait and see.

Paul, London, Canada

Lets hope house prices do crash then we will be able to afford to buy one! The only problem is that the leeches who have contributed the the price increases - the Estate Agents - will still get their 2% or 3% cut.

Joe Askew, Lymm, Cheshire

Mr Coogan said: “I don’t believe there will be a crash, but clearly a slowdown is more likely in an environment of higher interest rates.”

It's be interesting to know under what circumstances the CML would believe there will be a crash? I guess that would be after it's happened.

Dave, London,

I am sorry, but there historically has NEVER been a soft landing in the property market...

Too many BTL investors rely upon capital growth for profit, and as soon as long term real price falls become the norm no matter how small, the market will be flooded with investors heading for the exit.

House prices are, according to various international sources, 60% overpriced in the UK. If prices have increased 100% since 2001, why is it so hard to imagine prices could fall say 30% in real terms over the next 5 years?

Paul Smith, London, England