Gabriel Rozenberg
Claim your free 2010 double sided wall chart
Until very recently, Britain’s attitude to the sub-prime meltdown in the US was: “It couldn’t happen here”. But worries are growing that echoes of the American experience could ripple across the Atlantic.
As two mortgage lenders, Unity Homeloans and Infinity Mortgages, announced yesterday that they were closing their sub-prime mortgage product range to all new business with immediate effect, Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, sounded the alarm over Britain’s culture of debt. “The stresses and strains now being seen in the USA and in Germany may well be felt in Britain before too long,” he said.
The cracks are starting to show. Last week the Council of Mortgage Lenders sharply revised up its estimate of home repossessions. The numbers are pretty low compared with the US, and are dwarfed by the experience of the early 1990s. What really got analysts nervous was the number of repossessions as a proportion of mortgage arrears. By the look of the CML’s data, nearly 40 per cent of mortgages in arrears now lead to repossessions, up from 12 per cent just three years ago. The figure is far higher than anything seen in the 1980s or 90s and suggests that sub-prime lending is a larger phenomenon than previously thought.
David Owen, of Dresdner Kleinwort, said: “Lenders in this area are not giving households who run into financial difficulties the luxury of several months grace. Think what could happen if house prices fell.”
However, house prices show little sign of falling. Unlike in the US, a squeeze on the supply of homes has underpinned prices. The massive levels of defaults on loans in the US are therefore less likely to come to Britain. In addition, the CML says that the wilder inventiveness of the US sub-prime mortgage originators never spread to the UK in the first place.
One man who remains sure that the problem is manageable is Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England. This week he repeated that repossessions remained at a low level. The increase, he said, “doesn’t in and of itself at this stage constitute a major macroeconomic threat.”
But the absence, for now, of a large sub-prime problem in Britain does not mean that its stock market is immune to the problem. In fact, European banks such as HSBC and BNP have proved themselves markedly exposed to worthless mortgage-backed bonds and collateralised debt obligations.
Kevin Duffy, the managing director of Robert Sterling, the mortgage adviser, said: “We are seeing the contagion coming over from the Atlantic. The organisations lending that money in the US also have a stake-hold in the UK market so it is clearly going to have an impact. The question is also whether we are going to make it through the next few months without one of the big players withdrawing. That’s the $64 million question.”
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?
Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge
In this special section we explore new food trends to help improve your dinner party and impress guests
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more




1998
£47,955
2004
£56,950
Essex
Check your free Experian credit report before applying
Car Insurance
c. £70,000
The Duke of Edinburgh’s Award
Windsor
Competitive
Hickman and Rose
London
Southwark County Council
£100,000
Home Office
Liverpool
Moments from Battersea Park.
For sale with Winkworth
Find out about shared ownership.
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Book now for Free Stateroom Upgrades, Free parking at Southampton & Free Onboard Spend!
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
Wintersun - inspiration for your winter holiday
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2010 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.