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Lending in Spain’s financial and corporate sectors is grinding to a virtual standstill amid a climate of suspicion about which bank could be the “Spanish Northern Rock”.
“Everything has basically stopped because banks are too fearful to lend to each other,” one banker said. “Everyone wants to know who has been affected by the recent turbulence. There is a climate of total mistrust.”
An official from one of Spain’s largest construction companies said: “Everyone is waiting for banks to publish their third-quarter results before lending to anyone. They want to see who is in trouble.”
The Spanish banking system is considered to be extremely solid by the International Monetary Fund and analysts say that banks did not lend heavily in the sub-prime market. However, some analysts fear that Spanish banks could be affected if the lack of liquidity persists or if there is a serious correction in the property market. House prices have risen by 175 per cent since 1997.
Because house prices have risen so far, Spain is one of the countries at the highest risk of catching America’s property woes, according to a report by Euler Hermes, a leading international insurer of credit risk. “The UK, Ireland and Spain appear clearly at risk,” it said.
While Britain has hardly added any new homes to its stock in recent years, Spain has gone on a construction binge, building about 800,000 new homes a year, about 300,000 more than needed. Estate agents are dealing with a supply glut in many places and finding it hard to get overpriced new properties off their hands. Last week Llanera, a high-profile Valencia property developer, became the first big victim of a stalling property market and tighter credit conditions when it was unable to refinance its growing debt. The developer has defaulted on obligations believed to total more than €750 million (£523 million).
Some banks are also suffering from tighter credit markets, unable to offload their own mortgage debt. Last month, Banco Popular scrapped plans to issue €2 billion in mortgage-backed securities, saying that market conditions were too tough.
Speculation about which banks may be overexposed to Spain’s property market is rife, but no one is ready to name names. Moody’s Investors Service, the international credit ratings agency, said in a report this week that five, unspecified Spanish savings banks were particularly vulnerable to a sharp drop in the value of the country’s property market. Spanish bankers were furious at the report, securing a clarification by Moody’s the next day that played down the risk.
Any savings banks that got into trouble would almost certainly be bailed out because of their importance to Spain’s regional governments, but, fearing the worst, they have been increasing their provisions for a rise in mortgage defaults, as interest rates rise and Spain’s economy slows.
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well amazing.. Spain can and does, build 800,000 homes per year? 300,000 more than needed.. Why cant Britain do that? House price inflation solved in one fell stroke.. people could live in decent sized houses instead of the overpriced rabbit hutches we are sold now. Govt in league (and in debt) to large housebuilders. Along with the large supermarkets and the drink compys. They run every aspect of our lives. We're Fat because you make us so Tesco,Barratts,Guinness!
Elwin parsley, london , UK
Bailed out ? With what ? Dailey Telegraph 17th May 07-" Banco de Espana's holdings of foreign currency and gold has been reduced to e 13.2 bn.( 12 days of imports). Spain's private sector is e 600 bn in foreign debt.
Independent 5th Oct. 07 Spanish banks have loaned about e 280 bn to the property and construction sector. Corporate indebtdness is more than e 1000 bn.
I live in the southern part of Alicante. Estate agents are going broke at a furious level. Houses for sale are everywhere. Houses are, on the whole, not selling. Mortgage arrears are now doubling, House hold indebtdness is at a very high level.
The scene is set for a spectacular crash of the likes we all have not seen before. What to do?
The horse has not just bolted, It's now out of control in the paddock whilst we are going to have to burn the stable door to keep warm.Opening an auction house could be profitable, or praying.
Juan, Alicante, Spain
Tighter credit is the only antidote to excess liquidity. It's going to hurt developers who build houses on speculation, or greedy homebuyers who buy houses they simply cannot afford on the premise that prices will only go up and they'll be able to "flip" the house and buy an even more expensive dwelling.
Real estate is a commodity like anything else. Prices rise and fall depending on various factors, of which overbuilding is only one, but a significant one.
"Irrational exuberance" as per Alan Greenspan's warning to stock investors holds as true for real estate deals as for equities.
Martha, Miami, Florida, USA