Gabriel Rozenberg and James Rossiter
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The fallout from the global credit squeeze claimed another victim on this side of the Atlantic as one of Britain’s biggest housebuilders yesterday blamed an abrupt turnaround in consumer confidence for a drop in house sales.
In one of the firmest indications yet that the housing market is slowing, Bovis said that its sales had fallen sharply over the past six weeks and it would now miss its full-year forecasts. Profits will come in at least 7 per cent below expectations.
The warning was seen as a sign that the problems in the US housing and finance markets were beginning to affect consumer confidence in the UK. The City is betting that conditions in Britain’s housing market are set to deteriorate — the value of Britain’s top seven housebuilders has fallen by £8.7 billion, a drop of 42 per cent, since April 6, calculations by The Times show.
The crunch has also begun to cast its shadow over the jobs market, as a report showed employment growth on a worsening trend. The Recruitment and Employment Federation/KPMG reported that the rise in placements for permanent employment last month was the weakest pace in 13 months. Alan Nolan, a director of KPMG, said that the financial services and construction sectors could suffer the brunt of job losses that lie ahead.
Consumer confidence has already been hit in the wake of the turmoil in financial markets since August, according to the latest gauge of sentiment yesterday from the Nationwide Building Society. Its measure of how consumers feel about the economic situation dropped by three points last month to a reading of 99.
Ed Stansfield, property economist at Capital Economics, said: “The shift that we have seen in the US housing market is a good illustration of the potential significance of sentiment in property markets. It can be extremely powerful and it can precipitate quite big adjustments.”
The test for sentiment in the UK would come when Halifax and the Nationwide began reporting regular month-on-month falls in house prices, Mr Stansfield said. “There’s this idea that if sentiment is to drop that could act as a trigger for a US-style drop in prices.”
Construction sector activity was set to stay weak for a number of years and he added that investors’ hoarding of cash in response to the crisis was compounding uncertainty over prices in the £700 billion commercial property sector. Prices in that market fell 1.6 per cent in September, the sharpest drop since May 1990. Total returns on property fell for the first time since the last recession, data from Investment Property Databank show.
Panmure Gordon, the broking house, said yesterday that residential house prices would fall by 6 per cent over the coming two years.
As anxiety over the knock-on consequences of the credit squeeze continues to intensify, Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, told the BBC last night that the financial sector’s upheavals have further to run.
Mr King said that “things have improved significantly since August”. However, he argued: “I think that most people expect that we have several more months to get through before the banks have revealed all the losses that have occurred.”
Fears over the impact at home and abroad were heightened still further as markets punished the United States again by forcing down the value of the dollar, propelling the euro to a fresh high and sterling above $2.09. Oil prices rose above $97 a barrel and gold approached 27-year highs of $825 an ounce.
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Peter from Surbiton, England.
I am sorry to learn that prices in Surbiton continue to rise making it difficult for you to move. I was obliged to sell my 4 bedroom property in the Byeweays in October 2005 following a divorce and insistence by my ex-partner on a sale. Having lived in Surbiton for 25 years I can tell you it is one of the best places to live in and I am equally certain that despite the hype put out at present by vested interests prices in Surbiton too will become more realistic pretty soon. At least l hope they will as I am looking to move back in as soon as that happens!!
Apart from China India and Russia and possibly Brazil, the rest of the world is unlikely to see much economic joy in the coming 24 months which is bound to impact on house prices given the very high levels of credit we have in the UK. And apart from some fools like me not many foreigners are likely to rush to Surbiton to compete with you when you decide to move!!! Good luck.
LAKSHM AN PARDHANANI, Goa, India
House prices where I live are soaring and sales are the strongest in yrs. Property is selling fast on my street and I cant believe how much activity has risen since I moved back to the UK last yr. I have been looking to move into a bigger house recently but prices are so high that I cant afford to. Plus, the half dozen decent properties that I have looked at have all been sold in the past month after just weeks on the market. Last year as I moved here property was lingering for months, since then prices soared and activity has quickened. I think there is alot of foreign capital flooding London from commodity boom economies, Asia and the US. Given structural supply shortages are worsening as London's population swells, the supply and demand trajectories suggest continually rising equilibrium prices for houses in the South. I think the Rozenberg/ Rossiter article is bunkum. For EG today's Nationwide confidence survey is near a 2yr high at 98, it was 83 in DEC 06. Reality check please!
peter, surbiton, England
In 2001 Capital Economics predicted there would be a house price crash. They were spot on. There SHOULD have been. Capitalism is characterised by boom bust ,and conditions at the time signalled a brief recession. However the labour government prevented a recession by allowing interest rates to fall to a ridiculous level and overseeing mortgage lending of 6 x salary or more. For the past six years the UK has survived on debt and the mountain has grown to frightening levels. We are now about to witness the bust that Brown argued could be avoided. It can't. Labour has never been fit to manage the economy. The 'economic miracle' was a mirage built on unprecedented levels of debt. It is about to topple and the fall out will affect everyone of us.
sophie, london, uk
If the government does actually start this massive house building program I guess the construction workers will only be temporarily out of work......
Timothy Longman, Chester,
We obviously need a few more to be built on the green belt because now the developers will need more to turn a profit.
Stands to reason doesn't it?
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Pete Balchin, Solicitor , Bristol, UK
They will fall 40% over next 2 years. Not 6%. No wonder all my friends are selling and renting. Watch this catch on.
Kara Swart, London, UK