Gabriel Rozenberg, Grainne Gilmore and Anne Ashworth
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The most comprehensive picture of the gloom awaiting some homeowners next year is revealed today, as experts say the value of millions of homes will fall.
The wealthy will lose out as weak bonuses fail to lift the housing market, but those at the other end of the scale will suffer even more from lenders declaring an end to easy credit. Those in Britain’s new “pockets of pain” will be owners of homes worth below £350,000; owners of homes selling for between £1 million and £2 million in London and the South East; and those in any suburbs made popular by their proximity to a smarter area, estate agents say.
The Nationwide Building Society forecast yesterday that house-price inflation would tumble from near-double figures to zero by the end of next year, meaning that prices would fall in real terms across the country. Prices in the North, the Midlands and in East London are likely to fall next year, estate agents forecast, although a sharp downturn in prices is still seen as unlikely. Some economists believe that the buy-to-let market would be especially vulnerable. Those who bought new citycentre apartments are warned that their values will fall because of oversupply.
The Bank of England raised hopes of a reprieve from higher mortgage costs next year when it signalled this week that it would cut base interest rates at least twice by next summer, but mortgage lenders may not pass on any cuts.
The average mortgage rate rose above 6 per cent last month for the first time since 2001, even as expectations of a cut from the Bank grew. Several big lenders said that they could not guarantee that they would cut their standard variable rates if the base rate fell.
Homeowners have had five rate increases since August last year. James Cotton, of the mortgage broker London & Country Mortgages, said: “Given the testing times since the last rate movement in July, more lenders than usual may undercut customers a bit.”
The 1.7 million homeowners who will come to the end of fixed-rate deals next year are also likely to have to find extra cash. The number of those who have stretched themselves to the hilt to get on to the housing ladder has grown dramatically. Almost 5 per cent of mortgage borrowers are paying 50 per cent or more of their gross salary on mortgages, double the number two years ago, Bank of England figures show.
Countrywide, the biggest estate agent chain, said yesterday that it would close branches after being hit by cancelled sales. The group, which owns the Bradford & Bingley and Bairstow Eves agencies, said that people were becoming wary of buying property because of the global credit crunch. Completed sales in the first half of November were running at about half the summer rate, it said.
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